By Donald Kirk
War is actually never that far away in this corner of the world. We've grown so accustomed to near-crises and mini-crises that we tend to shrug and say, "It can't happen here," which, as it happens, is the name of a bitterly satirical novel by Sinclair Lewis published in the 1930s.
What did happen after publication of "It Can't Happen Here" is that much bad stuff happened. No, it didn't quite happen as in the novel, about a politico who bears, all these years later, an uncanny resemblance to Donald Trump. Much worse happened than the takeover of America by a dictator who could have been fantasizing the future Trump in his dreams, so amazing was his harsh repression of dissent, his noisy appeal to populist instincts, all in the spirit of "Make America Great Again."
The novel, however, did not anticipate far more truly tragic events. All too soon, the world was to plunge into a wave of slaughter such as we had never seen and would hope never to see again. What could have been worse, all in the space of a few brief years, than the execution of 10 million people, 6 million of them Jews, or the killing of 20 million Russians in the German invasion of the Soviet Union or the atom-bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki ― that last so devastating that mankind has been attempting with uncertain results ever since to snuff out the menace of nuclear war.
All of which came to mind as I got to thinking about the intrusion into South Korean air space of a Russian bomber ― and the South Korean response. What? Republic of Korea Air Force F15s and F16s taking to the skies, chasing the intruder away with flares and gunfire? But Vladimir Putin's Russia is supposed to be making friendly overtures to Moon Jae-in's South Korea. What did those mad Russians think they were doing?
Nor did the story end there. Next thing we heard, Chinese and Russian planes had been roaring around Korea's air defense identification zone ― the vast area from which any wayward aircraft automatically report where they are.
Don't ask me how they do this (presumably by some electronic wizardry) or exactly how broad a swath of sea is covered by this mysterious zone, but the bottom line is, "What would it take for these overflights and intrusions and games of hide-and-seek to turn into bloody shootouts in which lives, towns, cities are lost?"
That's not all. Let us remember that South Korea is supposed to be on pretty friendly terms with China as well as Russia.
Maybe Xi Jinping is still sore about Moon accepting the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) monster set up by American soldiers way south of Seoul, but THAAD is yesterday's news. It's there, and that's that. Let it be. Not harming anyone. Forget about it. Let bygones be bygones. The real winners in the THAAD imbroglio are those huge American companies, Lockheed, Raytheon, Boeing, etc. Think of all the big names reaping mega-millions off a mere telescope with a radar screen.
Could it be, though, that China and Russia are sending those planes around the periphery of South Korea, far out to see where nobody can see them, to show who's really boss of whom? That brings us to the great power to the east of Korea, namely Japan. They've got planes too, and they send them in hot pursuit of Chinese aircraft, scaring them away from the disputed Senkaku Islands, held by Japan but claimed by China, which calls them Diaoyu.
The Japanese, to be sure, aren't sending warplanes over Korean waters or into Korean air space, not even around Dokdo, those two enormous rocks way out there in the East Sea that Japan calls Takeshima and claims for Japan. No way are the Japanese going to do anything to enforce their claim, not as long as Korea has 50 or so policemen on duty on Dokdo and, last I heard, an aging couple is staying out there running a food stand and post office.
That is, no way are the Koreans and Japanese going to start shooting at one another, that is, until a Japanese plane intrudes over Dokdo and gets shot at. And what if, by some accident, a Korean plane actually hits a Russian bomber with one of those warning shots or the Chinese get really mad about the Koreans tracking them so closely over Korean waters while the Americans spy on them everywhere via THAAD?
Oh, did I overlook North Korea? Sorry, almost forgot. North Korean missiles? Don't worry. Kim Jong isn't pressing the button ― yet.
And the Americans? They're all snug in their base at Pyeongtaek beside the West Sea, too worried about sparking an anti-American protest. Wouldn't hurt a flea.
It's all those little things we need to worry about ― an intrusion here, an accident there. As happened after "It Can't Happen Here" was published in 1935, it surely can happen here. Just is, we have no real idea when, how, where ― or even quite why.
Donald Kirk,www.donaldkirk.com, has been covering war and peace in the region for decades.
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What did happen after publication of "It Can't Happen Here" is that much bad stuff happened. No, it didn't quite happen as in the novel, about a politico who bears, all these years later, an uncanny resemblance to Donald Trump. Much worse happened than the takeover of America by a dictator who could have been fantasizing the future Trump in his dreams, so amazing was his harsh repression of dissent, his noisy appeal to populist instincts, all in the spirit of "Make America Great Again."
The novel, however, did not anticipate far more truly tragic events. All too soon, the world was to plunge into a wave of slaughter such as we had never seen and would hope never to see again. What could have been worse, all in the space of a few brief years, than the execution of 10 million people, 6 million of them Jews, or the killing of 20 million Russians in the German invasion of the Soviet Union or the atom-bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki ― that last so devastating that mankind has been attempting with uncertain results ever since to snuff out the menace of nuclear war.
All of which came to mind as I got to thinking about the intrusion into South Korean air space of a Russian bomber ― and the South Korean response. What? Republic of Korea Air Force F15s and F16s taking to the skies, chasing the intruder away with flares and gunfire? But Vladimir Putin's Russia is supposed to be making friendly overtures to Moon Jae-in's South Korea. What did those mad Russians think they were doing?
Nor did the story end there. Next thing we heard, Chinese and Russian planes had been roaring around Korea's air defense identification zone ― the vast area from which any wayward aircraft automatically report where they are.
Don't ask me how they do this (presumably by some electronic wizardry) or exactly how broad a swath of sea is covered by this mysterious zone, but the bottom line is, "What would it take for these overflights and intrusions and games of hide-and-seek to turn into bloody shootouts in which lives, towns, cities are lost?"
That's not all. Let us remember that South Korea is supposed to be on pretty friendly terms with China as well as Russia.
Maybe Xi Jinping is still sore about Moon accepting the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) monster set up by American soldiers way south of Seoul, but THAAD is yesterday's news. It's there, and that's that. Let it be. Not harming anyone. Forget about it. Let bygones be bygones. The real winners in the THAAD imbroglio are those huge American companies, Lockheed, Raytheon, Boeing, etc. Think of all the big names reaping mega-millions off a mere telescope with a radar screen.
Could it be, though, that China and Russia are sending those planes around the periphery of South Korea, far out to see where nobody can see them, to show who's really boss of whom? That brings us to the great power to the east of Korea, namely Japan. They've got planes too, and they send them in hot pursuit of Chinese aircraft, scaring them away from the disputed Senkaku Islands, held by Japan but claimed by China, which calls them Diaoyu.
The Japanese, to be sure, aren't sending warplanes over Korean waters or into Korean air space, not even around Dokdo, those two enormous rocks way out there in the East Sea that Japan calls Takeshima and claims for Japan. No way are the Japanese going to do anything to enforce their claim, not as long as Korea has 50 or so policemen on duty on Dokdo and, last I heard, an aging couple is staying out there running a food stand and post office.
That is, no way are the Koreans and Japanese going to start shooting at one another, that is, until a Japanese plane intrudes over Dokdo and gets shot at. And what if, by some accident, a Korean plane actually hits a Russian bomber with one of those warning shots or the Chinese get really mad about the Koreans tracking them so closely over Korean waters while the Americans spy on them everywhere via THAAD?
Oh, did I overlook North Korea? Sorry, almost forgot. North Korean missiles? Don't worry. Kim Jong isn't pressing the button ― yet.
And the Americans? They're all snug in their base at Pyeongtaek beside the West Sea, too worried about sparking an anti-American protest. Wouldn't hurt a flea.
It's all those little things we need to worry about ― an intrusion here, an accident there. As happened after "It Can't Happen Here" was published in 1935, it surely can happen here. Just is, we have no real idea when, how, where ― or even quite why.
Donald Kirk,www.donaldkirk.com, has been covering war and peace in the region for decades.
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