.jpg/dims/resize/740/optimize) |
Now it seems a second Trump-Kim summit won't happen right after the mid-term elections for members of the U.S. Congress on Nov. 6 but early next year. North Korea will jump back into the news at the first sign of renewed crisis, but for now the U.S. is looking for common ground with South Korean moves toward reconciliation ― and waiting for Kim Jong-un, seriously, to get on with getting rid of his nukes and missiles.
In his desperation to keep the Democratic Party from gaining control of congress, Trump has more important things to talk about than North Korea as he approaches his moment of truth in the mid-terms. That's when we'll know whether his rhetoric, his hyperbolic utterances, his attacks on Democrats for just about everything, his defense of dictators, his policies on taxes, health care, alliances and treaties really are working.
Democratic strategists see the elections for 35 of 100 senators, each of whom serve six-year terms, and for two-year terms for all 435 members of the House of Representatives, as a chance to take over both houses of Congress. For sure, if they succeed, there will be an outcry for Trump's impeachment and dropping what many see as his impetuous, reckless policies.
Republican Party strategists, however, are counting on the millions of working-class, middle-Americans who voted for Trump in the 2016 presidential election to stand by him in this crucial test of his popularity and power. Just as the experts were proven wrong in their forecasts of victory for Hillary Clinton two years ago, so they may also be shocked to discover that Trump still holds the same appeal.
Or so the Republicans hope. Actually, however, GOP candidates are encountering widespread discontent over Trump's policies, ranging from taxation reform that enriches mostly the rich to his attack on the Affordable Care Act ― the legacy of his predecessor in the White House, Barack Obama. Those issues count for more among millions of Americans than controversial foreign policy questions.
At the same time, Trump has trouble defending ruthless dictators, including Saudi Arabia's crown prince, Mohammed bin Salmon, and North Korea's Kim Jong-un. Much as he would like to accept the Saudi explanation that the thugs who killed the activist critic Jamal Khashoggi were acting on their own, nobody's buying that story.
People are convinced that Salman ordered the murder inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul as he has done away with other critics of his regime. The fact that Khashoggi, a Saudi citizen but an American resident, was criticizing Saudi rule as a columnist for the Washington Post has given the case such a high profile that it may not blow away as Salman, and Trump, would like.
Then there's Kim Jong-un. U.S. policymakers are conflicted over how to get along with the South Koreans, while wary of moves by the leader of their South Korean ally, President Moon Jae-in, toward reconciliation. They don't like the no-fly zone along the DMZ that Moon agreed on when he saw Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang, and they are upset by compromises on sanctions, as evidenced by talks about North-South rail links.
Such issues, though, are hardly mentioned while Trump campaigns at rallies of the faithful, appealing to voters worried about illegal immigrants from Central America pouring across the southern border with Mexico. Naturally he takes credit for the growth of the economy, denouncing the Democrats for anything that goes wrong.
The murder of Khashoggi will have repercussions on U.S. foreign policy. The U.S. counts on Saudi Arabia as an ally against Iran, a regional threat with close ties to North Korea, from which it imports missiles and other armaments. Then there's rising concern about China, North Korea's only real ally, the source of oil and other vital supplies that get into the North despite sanctions. China's not going to do much to persuade Kim to get rid of his nukes while engaged in a trade war with the U.S.
Trump needs both houses of the Congress to be on his side while dealing with these issues. Otherwise he may limp through the second half of his four-year term as a lame duck fending off impeachment and unlikely to be reelected in 2020. But one lesson of 2016 is that he may do better than many of the pundits imagine.
Donald Kirk (www.donaldkirk.com) has been covering the ups and downs of U.S. policy in Asia for decades.
![[INTERVIEW] Hip-hop group Uptown returns after 13 years with new lineup](https://img.koreatimes.co.kr/upload/thumbnailV2/0eae35da5e9c40c38cf439e550a2eb3e.jpg/dims/resize/178/optimize)
![[INTERVIEW] ASTRO members aim to shine in musical theater](https://img.koreatimes.co.kr/upload/thumbnailV2/df16760dc50f469d93434f66a069465c.jpg/dims/resize/178/optimize)
