By Donald Kirk
The U.S.-Korea alliance is at a crossroads, and the North Koreans think they know what to do to send Washington and Seoul in different directions. How about demanding, repeatedly, a "peace declaration" that President Moon Jae-in also thinks would be great? Everybody wants peace. Nobody wants Korean War II, so why not all the protagonists in the first Korean War, North and South Koreans, Americans, Chinese too, sign a paper declaring the war's over and let us now live in everlasting peace.
The North Korean demand, however, is not intended to foster enduring peace. Rather, it is a pressure tactic artfully designed to deepen growing differences between Americans and South Koreans on how to get the North Koreans to give up their nuclear program. Moon, in his eagerness for reconciliation, has endorsed calls for a peace declaration, even a peace treaty, but may be overlooking considerations that stand in the way of that noble aim.
Among the most obvious is the United Nations Command. North Korea for years has been calling for dissolution of the command, formed at the outset of the Korean War. Beneath the U.N. banner, American and South Korean troops, joined by contingents from 16 countries, fought the North Koreans and Chinese for more than three years in a terrible war that ended in an armistice, not a treaty.
Amazingly, that armistice has guaranteed the peace needed for South Korea to grow into a global economic powerhouse while North Korea has squandered its resources on nukes and missiles that it's not likely to use barring some dreadful unforeseen miscalculation. Only this year has Kim Jong Un resolved to build up the North's decrepit economy while claiming he's done with building up his nuclear program.
As a condition for peace, however, we may be sure that North Korea would add demands that would essentially strip South Korea of the security of the UN Command, of the U.S. alliance and of numerous other safety measures needed to be sure the peninsula remains at peace. Among these are the UN Military Armistice Commission and the Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission formed by the truce to make sure the former combatants stayed on their side of the demilitarized zone, also formed by the truce.
The North Koreans would love to see this elaborate structure fade into history. They have already shown what they thought of the neutral nations commission, which originally included Sweden and Switzerland as "neutral" on the side of the UN Command and Poland and Czechoslovakia on the Communist side. North Korea wanted nothing to do with Poland or Czechoslovakia after the overthrow of their Communist regimes. The break-up of Czechoslovakia into the Czech Republic and Slovakia gave one more reason for the North to forget about them.
The NNSC lives on with Swedish and Swiss officers monitoring adherence to the truce on the southern side of the DMZ many years after North Korea threw out the Poles and Czechs. The North Koreans would like the Swedes and Swiss also to go, leaving no "neutral" officers to investigate truce violations. The North would argue there's no need for them after all sides agree on "peace." Similarly, they would go on calling for withdrawal of America's 28,500 troops and closure of U.S. bases.
Moon will have a tough time persuading the U.S. to subscribe to a peace declaration as long as the North makes it a condition for doing something about its nuclear program. The American view is simple: The North Koreans first have to take steps to show they're serious about "denuclearization" in keeping with the carefully bland statement signed by President Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un in Singapore in June. There seems to be no way around this impasse.
North Korea is pressuring the South to pressure the U.S. not only on an end-of-war declaration but also on U.S. and UN sanctions, setting their removal as another key condition for denuclearization. Imposed after the North's missile and nuclear tests, most recently nearly a year ago, sanctions are hurting despite violations by the Chinese and Russians. No matter what the Americans might do to keep him happy, however, no one trusts Kim to give up his nukes and missiles. Assuming Moon does go to Pyongyang next month as advertised, he will have a chance to urge Kim to meet Trump for another summit and pick up where they left off in Singapore.
It's possible, knowing there's very little else Moon can do, that the North Koreans will back out of plans for a third Moon-Kim summit. Or Kim, receiving Moon in Pyongyang, might want him to sign a declaration preaching peace even if the Americans and Chinese avoid signing anything. Either way, let us pray Korea remains at peace as maintained by the Korean War armistice for more than 65 years.
Donald Kirk (www.donaldkirk.com) has been covering the ups and downs of peace in Korea since the 1970s.
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The North Korean demand, however, is not intended to foster enduring peace. Rather, it is a pressure tactic artfully designed to deepen growing differences between Americans and South Koreans on how to get the North Koreans to give up their nuclear program. Moon, in his eagerness for reconciliation, has endorsed calls for a peace declaration, even a peace treaty, but may be overlooking considerations that stand in the way of that noble aim.
Among the most obvious is the United Nations Command. North Korea for years has been calling for dissolution of the command, formed at the outset of the Korean War. Beneath the U.N. banner, American and South Korean troops, joined by contingents from 16 countries, fought the North Koreans and Chinese for more than three years in a terrible war that ended in an armistice, not a treaty.
Amazingly, that armistice has guaranteed the peace needed for South Korea to grow into a global economic powerhouse while North Korea has squandered its resources on nukes and missiles that it's not likely to use barring some dreadful unforeseen miscalculation. Only this year has Kim Jong Un resolved to build up the North's decrepit economy while claiming he's done with building up his nuclear program.
As a condition for peace, however, we may be sure that North Korea would add demands that would essentially strip South Korea of the security of the UN Command, of the U.S. alliance and of numerous other safety measures needed to be sure the peninsula remains at peace. Among these are the UN Military Armistice Commission and the Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission formed by the truce to make sure the former combatants stayed on their side of the demilitarized zone, also formed by the truce.
The North Koreans would love to see this elaborate structure fade into history. They have already shown what they thought of the neutral nations commission, which originally included Sweden and Switzerland as "neutral" on the side of the UN Command and Poland and Czechoslovakia on the Communist side. North Korea wanted nothing to do with Poland or Czechoslovakia after the overthrow of their Communist regimes. The break-up of Czechoslovakia into the Czech Republic and Slovakia gave one more reason for the North to forget about them.
The NNSC lives on with Swedish and Swiss officers monitoring adherence to the truce on the southern side of the DMZ many years after North Korea threw out the Poles and Czechs. The North Koreans would like the Swedes and Swiss also to go, leaving no "neutral" officers to investigate truce violations. The North would argue there's no need for them after all sides agree on "peace." Similarly, they would go on calling for withdrawal of America's 28,500 troops and closure of U.S. bases.
Moon will have a tough time persuading the U.S. to subscribe to a peace declaration as long as the North makes it a condition for doing something about its nuclear program. The American view is simple: The North Koreans first have to take steps to show they're serious about "denuclearization" in keeping with the carefully bland statement signed by President Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un in Singapore in June. There seems to be no way around this impasse.
North Korea is pressuring the South to pressure the U.S. not only on an end-of-war declaration but also on U.S. and UN sanctions, setting their removal as another key condition for denuclearization. Imposed after the North's missile and nuclear tests, most recently nearly a year ago, sanctions are hurting despite violations by the Chinese and Russians. No matter what the Americans might do to keep him happy, however, no one trusts Kim to give up his nukes and missiles. Assuming Moon does go to Pyongyang next month as advertised, he will have a chance to urge Kim to meet Trump for another summit and pick up where they left off in Singapore.
It's possible, knowing there's very little else Moon can do, that the North Koreans will back out of plans for a third Moon-Kim summit. Or Kim, receiving Moon in Pyongyang, might want him to sign a declaration preaching peace even if the Americans and Chinese avoid signing anything. Either way, let us pray Korea remains at peace as maintained by the Korean War armistice for more than 65 years.
Donald Kirk (www.donaldkirk.com) has been covering the ups and downs of peace in Korea since the 1970s.
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