Argentina unraveling?

By John J. Metzler

This didn't have to happen. But blame toxic politics, the living legacy of the populist Peronist era, and the tipping point of the COVID-19 pandemic, and you discover what is unravelling Argentina's socioeconomic fabric. Sadly we see a resource-rich and formerly middle class country morphing into a tragic parody of bad governance and socialist stagnation.

Argentina is a land where many of the political-isms of the 20th century have been tried, tinkered with and usually failed. There's always been the theatrical touch in politics as much as in soccer, but somehow because of the country's vast resources, hardworking farmers, and last minute political sobriety, Argentina would always muddle through. The coronavirus pandemic changed this paradigm.

Besides creating a widening health emergency ― over 67,000 people have died from the population of 45 million ― the coronavirus allowed Russia and China to introduce their vaccines to a land whose government has welcomed them. Argentina's left wing progressive President Alberto Fernandez and his vice president, Christine Kirchner (herself a former president too), jumped at the chance to use the Russian Sputnik vaccines, being one of the few countries in Latin America besides Venezuela to endorse this jab.

As in much of Latin America, traditional trade patterns with the United States have shifted precipitously to commerce with the People's Republic of China; Beijing seeks access to Argentina's vast natural resources and is willing to make a play for them. This is nothing new but the pandemic appears to have sealed the deal not only for trade but for closer political relations.

Currently China operates a space monitoring station in southern Patagonia. Shrouded in secrecy, the facility is run by the China Satellite Launch and Tracking Control General, which reports to the People's Liberation Army. The station's 16 story parabolic dish antenna looms for miles around.

Interestingly as Argentina is in the market to replace its phased out French Mirage III jets which formed the spearhead to Argentina's thrust to capture the British Falkland Island during its ill-fated 1982 conflict, China is now negotiating to sell Argentina 12 of its supersonic J-17 multipurpose fighter jets.

Generations after he died, General Juan Peron's legacy haunts Argentina; Peron a populist and socialist, along with his popular wife Evita set the political template for the nationalistic left.

As I wrote from Buenos Aires a few years ago, "Yet the central and enduring political malady affecting Argentina remains the rule and ensuring legacy of Juan Peron and especially his wife Evita who are viewed like a cult of cherished history, trade union solidarity, and with near religious veneration."

There's a searingly poignant warning here; Argentina was along with Venezuela one of South America's success stories. But economic mismanagement along with the pandemic has devastated many livelihoods in this once solidly middle class country. The government now officially admits the poverty rate has reached 42 percent and jumps to a shocking 60 percent among the young between 15-29 years old.

A tempestuous political scene cursed by bouts of poor governance, military rule, and a fractious democracy have seen Argentina's middle-class standing decline. Now democracy is eroded by a moribund economy which appears in free fall. Inflation at 47 percent, massive IMF debts, and 11 percent unemployment underscores the tragic malaise.

For example, when this writer was visiting this beautiful land just over two years ago, the exchange rate stood at 36 pesos to the U.S. dollar; today the economic downdraft has set the rate at 93 pesos to a dollar!

Sadly many middle class residents, especially the young, are leaving Argentina to settle in Europe or the U.S.

Freedom House, the respected, human rights monitor ranks Argentina 84th of 100 in terms of political and civil rights (the U.S. ranks 86th). The group adds, "Argentina is a vibrant representative democracy with competitive elections, lively media and civil society sectors."

Turning to the Heritage Foundation's reputed "Index of Economic Freedoms" which shows Argentina sadly slipping to 148 out of 178 global comparators. This is a tragedy for a country with so much potential.

Heritage adds, "Argentina, once one of the world's wealthiest nations, is South America's second-largest country. It has vast agricultural and mineral resources and a highly educated population, but it also has a long history of political and economic instability."

In Argentina there's an awkward tango of the political parties who basically need the opposition as their main cause for existence. Later this year will see both political sides clash in mid-term legislative elections, which will offer a referendum on the leftist Fernandez presidency.

John J. Metzler (jjmcolumn@earthlink.net) is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He is the author of "Divided Dynamism ― The Diplomacy of Separated Nations: Germany, Korea, China."