How would Korea collapse (again)?

By Jason Lim

If you discount the unsubstantiated myths about ancient Korea being the center of the Eastern World several millennia ago, today is the most powerful and most influential that Korea has ever been. I don't just mean the popularity of K-pop and K-dramas. Korea is a major voice in the political, military and economic discussions taking place around the world at the highest levels. It's astounding to think that such a country could rise out of the ashes of a complete civilizational collapse following brutal colonialization and devastating war.

When you examine the photos of Korea taken by traveling Western missionaries merely 100 years ago and compare them to the world-class city that is Seoul today, the visual juxtaposition threatens to trigger a disbelieving double take. That such a change could have happened within a few generations ― one lifetime if you lived long enough ― is such an absurd proposition that you would be justified in believing in time machines. More than the physical destruction, imagine the civilizational framework that collapsed under the weight of the overwhelming invasion of the modern at the turn of the 20th century. The old order was gone, and nothing was as it was. It was literally the end of the world.

So, at the height of Korea's power, it's a good time to start thinking about its collapse. If the rise of today's Korea was meteoric, then its collapse might be as well. What would trigger the collapse of today's Korea? How quickly would that happen? What would that look like?

Civilizational collapse is all about the sudden, abrupt change of a complex system. As such, there is no one cause. Any collapse would be unpredictable, an emerging phenomenon that rises suddenly and unexpectedly from various factors. Having stated the obvious, however, there are massive changes taking place in Korea that bear an academic interest, if not outright alarm.

One, you can't dismiss climate change and its impact on Korea's weather patterns. Even in an advanced country like Korea, this year's torrential rains have caused multiple deaths and exposed the lack of infrastructure capacity to deal with the changing nature. Add to this the extreme heat that has become the norm in Korea, summer in the peninsula is becoming fairly scary. Extreme weather, as in many places around the world, is bound to become more frequent, forcing fundamental changes to how people live. A tropical Korea in the near future (relatively speaking) is not out of the question. Many historic civilizations have collapsed due to prolonged changes in weather patterns. While technology can mitigate the impacts of such changes, it won't be sustainable over the long run.

Two, Koreans are not having babies. Korea has the lowest birthrate of any OECD country. Before ethnic Koreans go the way of the dodo, I am more concerned about the societal changes that such demographic trends will usher in. The increasing dearth of ethnic Koreans of marriageable age will undoubtedly reinforce the deeply ingrained defensive ethno-nationalism of the Korean culture, leading to an outright preference for "pure blood" marriages and children. This might sound preposterous, but please be reminded that being a pure, homogenous ethnicity is ingrained in the culture of Korean society, so much so that North Korea's version of this tendency has turned it into de facto race-based fascism.

Add to this the inevitability of a non-ethnic Korean labor force from Southeast Asia flowing into Korea to reinforce the labor market. Going from an ethnically homogenous to an ethnically plural society has never been smooth or free from violent discrimination. Surrounding all these societal changes is the extreme inequity between the haves and have-nots that will surely exacerbate these increasing societal fissures. Of course, we can count on demagogues to step up and gain political power by actively mining these fissures even more deeply. If democracy has a weakness, then this is it: rise of populist demagogues that will speak to the fears of the majority dealing with real or imagined loss of status and security.

Three, the political and economic model that made Korea what it is today is nearing its utility. The Cold War has given way to the G2 rivalry in which China, the traditional hegemon of Asia, is asserting its dominant place once again and coming into conflict with the U.S., under whose patronage Korea so thrived. As the rivalry intensifies, Korea can no longer afford to hedge its bets. It has to take a side. And that has consequences. Further, what got you here for Korea Inc. will not get you there. Can Korea Inc. reinvent itself and stay relevant in the world as an economic powerhouse?

How would Korea deal with such changes that are already here? Would it freeze? Would it fight? Would it run away? All three options will be proposed, and each one will sound wise depending on where you sit. Ultimately, today's strategic decisions by political and business leadership will determine how Korea fares. Of course, the whole world is facing similar situations. Therefore, faced with such a macro change, a nation's capacity to make good, strategic decisions and invest resources accordingly is the only competitive advantage that it has.

Jason Lim (jasonlim@msn.com) is a Washington, D.C.-based expert on innovation, leadership and organizational culture.