Managing potential conflict on Korean Peninsula

By Simon Hutagalung

In 2019, South Korean President Moon Jae-in expressed the goal to achieve Korean reunification by 2045 and hosting a joint Seoul-Pyongyang Olympics in 2032. President Moon was known for his emphasis on dialogue and cooperation to establish peace on the Korean Peninsula and so, had a liberal eye toward crisis and conflict. However, the political sentiment toward Korean reunification changes with every regime.

Under a new, conservative South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, the political direction has adopted a hard-rhetorical line toward Pyongyang but a dramatic shift in South Korean policy toward Korean reunification is unlikely. To avert a military or nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula and achieve peaceful reunification, the following course of action could be applied as follow:

1. Discussing the future of the Korean Reunification
Firstly, and most importantly, it is necessary for North Korea and South Korea to have a similar approach to Korean reunification. While Korean reunification has remained one of the major national goals of both countries, it is important to consider the economic, political and socio-cultural differences that now prevail. On one hand, South Korea is a democratic, free-market country with a higher rate of education and employment.

On the other hand, there is North Korea, an authoritative and centrally planned economy and a poor rate of education and employment opportunities. Such vast differences between political and economic institutions have made Korean reunification a complicated and dangerous process whose economic cost South Korea will have to bear. Given such obstacles, North Korea and South Korea need to have an absolute approach toward Korean reunification.

The doubts over both states' intentions toward reunification have arisen due to increased hostility between the two since early 2022 as North Korea increased its aggressive posture and conducted more missile tests than ever before. Similarly, South Korea has decided to become militarily independent in dealing with North Korean threats. With these prevailing tensions and increased hostility, it is first important to figure out if both states want reunification. This can be expressed through media in presidential or senior officials' speeches on both sides.

2. An informal senior officials' meeting between South and North Korea

In case both states aim at reunification, there should be an informal senior official meeting between South Korea and North Korea to discuss the approach towards reunification. As the major goal is to achieve peaceful reunification, both countries must discuss the ways this can be made possible and the timeline in which this goal is to be achieved. The venue for the senior officials meeting should be mutually agreed upon by the two countries themselves. At this point, it is significant to have no external intervention.

3. A ministerial-level meeting between South and North Korea involving major powers

In case the senior officials' meeting bears fruit, it should be elevated to a ministerial-level meeting between South Korea and North Korea. At this point however, major powers ― the United States, Russia, China and Japan ― can be included in the negotiation process to discuss the ways for reunification and offer required resources for a peaceful process. However, to make sure that major powers do not view the matter from the lens of their national interests, neutral and diplomatically capable parties like Indonesia can act as a bridge builder. Again, the venue must be mutually agreed upon between the two countries themselves or with the help of the bridge builder. In almost all the conflict resolution processes, bridge builders have played a positive role in putting an end to the conflict.

Moreover, the results of the meeting must be documented just like the 1972 South-North Joint Communique which listed that both Seoul and Pyongyang agree that Korean reunification should be achieved through independent efforts of the two countries without external intervention, through peaceful means, and by fostering a "grand national unity." However, now it is important to formulate a detailed and elaborated document including what would be the independent efforts, which state actors must be kept excluded and what are the mutually agreed peaceful means, etc.

4. A presidential-level meeting between South Korea and North Korea

Finally, a presidential-level meeting between the Head of State of both South Korea and North Korea can seal the deal. This meeting should also include the four major powers as well as an observer from ASEAN to ensure that all the regional actors maintain a similar interest in Korean reunification. This can help the regional actors and major powers to pool their resources to allow a peaceful reunification.

Overall, Korean reunification is undoubtedly a challenging and complicated process given the divergence of interests and institutions between both countries as well as their major power allies. It is highly difficult to bring all the involved parties to the same page and act toward Korean reunification. However, the above steps, one after another, can help break the ice and make way for a smooth process.

Simon Hutagalung is a senior diplomat and is currently working at the Indonesian Foreign Ministry as a coordinator for terrorism for the Center for Asia Africa and Middle East Region. The opinion here is his own and not representing the Indonesian Foreign Ministry.