By John Burton
Even before he is inaugurated on May 10, Yoon Suk-yeol already has the appearance of a lame-duck president. Several factors are against him. First of all, he won by a razor-thin margin of 0.8 percent after a bitter presidential campaign that reflected the increased polarization of the Korean electorate.
The divisive presidential campaign alienated broad swaths of the electorate, particularly among young women due to Yoon's anti-feminist rhetoric. His popularity is already at a historic low for an incoming president.
Only 53 percent of the public has expressed confidence that Yoon will do well, compared with 64 percent for Park Geun-hye and 75 percent for Moon Jae-in at the beginning of their terms. Yoon's control over the People Power Party is also weak, leaving him vulnerable to intra-party feuding.
Yoon's slim margin of victory will make it difficult for him to mobilize public support for his key campaign pledges. These include a more market-oriented approach to promoting economic growth, which progressives fear will only increase income inequality, while threatening to alienate Yoon's political base of low-income voters.
Another barrier that Yoon faces is that the National Assembly remains in control of the liberal opposition until 2024. This will make it difficult to pass legislation proposed by the new president. It will likely result in slower policymaking and create potential deadlocks for labor market reforms, corporate tax cuts, administrative deregulation and reductions in government spending that Yoon is seeking. Parliamentary clashes can also be expected over moves by the opposition to pass COVID-19 economic relief bills and prosecution reforms.
Yoon is also not helping his cause by refusing to meet Moon as part of the transition process, explaining that he is opposed to Moon's appointment of several key government officials in his waning days in office.
Partisan rancor could worsen if Yoon is tempted to use his background as prosecutor general to go after his political opponents. Political retribution has been the name of the game after previous presidential elections, with four conservative presidents having been imprisoned over the last 30 years. The right may now be looking for political payback by targeting the outgoing President Moon with whom Yoon had a public feud that led him to go into politics.
Another handicap for Yoon is that he lacks political experience. This is reflected in his proposal to abandon Cheong Wa Dae in favor of using the defense ministry building in Seoul's Yongsan District as the new presidential office "to bring power closer to the people." Yoon's decision to make this his first major action seems odd, when he could have instead helped secure a popular mandate by focusing on the recent spike of COVID-19 cases, for example.
The populist-inspired move has been criticized as a waste of money that could create logistical and traffic problems in central Seoul. Several former senior military officials warned the move could create "a vacuum in national security during the transition period" when tensions are escalating due to North Korea's recent missile tests.
Yoon's willingness to spend precious political capital on what appears to be a personal project demonstrates that he lacks political nous. In a recent survey, 54 percent of respondents opposed the move.
The hasty move to install Yoon in the defense ministry building before the May 10 inauguration has also revived questions whether Yoon has been influenced by shamans affiliated with his wife, because they have warned that Cheong Wa Dae is cursed and Yoon should avoid working there.
Further credence for this suspicion is that Yoon has said if the move is not completed by May 10, he could work for the time being from the office of his transition team in central Seoul. Yoon's daily commute across the Han River from his home in southern Seoul threatens to cause massive traffic jams along one of the busiest routes in the city.
Meanwhile, Yoon faces a daunting list of challenges. North Korea's recent missile tests are increasing military tensions. Inflation is rising and interest rate hikes could burst the property bubble and trigger a recession.
Yoon's defenders argue that he is a political maverick unbeholden to vested interests, which will enable him to shake up the establishment and achieve his goals. But there is the risk that being a political novice could also lead to mistakes.
An early indication of public support for Yoon will come in June when local elections are held. The fear is that a floundering Yoon administration could lash out at political opponents by targeting Moon Jae-in or Lee Jae-myung for prosecution in an effort to distract the public. But the use of these tactics could also lead to the revival of candlelit protests to counter what would be seen as democratic backsliding under Yoon.
John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.
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The divisive presidential campaign alienated broad swaths of the electorate, particularly among young women due to Yoon's anti-feminist rhetoric. His popularity is already at a historic low for an incoming president.
Only 53 percent of the public has expressed confidence that Yoon will do well, compared with 64 percent for Park Geun-hye and 75 percent for Moon Jae-in at the beginning of their terms. Yoon's control over the People Power Party is also weak, leaving him vulnerable to intra-party feuding.
Yoon's slim margin of victory will make it difficult for him to mobilize public support for his key campaign pledges. These include a more market-oriented approach to promoting economic growth, which progressives fear will only increase income inequality, while threatening to alienate Yoon's political base of low-income voters.
Another barrier that Yoon faces is that the National Assembly remains in control of the liberal opposition until 2024. This will make it difficult to pass legislation proposed by the new president. It will likely result in slower policymaking and create potential deadlocks for labor market reforms, corporate tax cuts, administrative deregulation and reductions in government spending that Yoon is seeking. Parliamentary clashes can also be expected over moves by the opposition to pass COVID-19 economic relief bills and prosecution reforms.
Yoon is also not helping his cause by refusing to meet Moon as part of the transition process, explaining that he is opposed to Moon's appointment of several key government officials in his waning days in office.
Partisan rancor could worsen if Yoon is tempted to use his background as prosecutor general to go after his political opponents. Political retribution has been the name of the game after previous presidential elections, with four conservative presidents having been imprisoned over the last 30 years. The right may now be looking for political payback by targeting the outgoing President Moon with whom Yoon had a public feud that led him to go into politics.
Another handicap for Yoon is that he lacks political experience. This is reflected in his proposal to abandon Cheong Wa Dae in favor of using the defense ministry building in Seoul's Yongsan District as the new presidential office "to bring power closer to the people." Yoon's decision to make this his first major action seems odd, when he could have instead helped secure a popular mandate by focusing on the recent spike of COVID-19 cases, for example.
The populist-inspired move has been criticized as a waste of money that could create logistical and traffic problems in central Seoul. Several former senior military officials warned the move could create "a vacuum in national security during the transition period" when tensions are escalating due to North Korea's recent missile tests.
Yoon's willingness to spend precious political capital on what appears to be a personal project demonstrates that he lacks political nous. In a recent survey, 54 percent of respondents opposed the move.
The hasty move to install Yoon in the defense ministry building before the May 10 inauguration has also revived questions whether Yoon has been influenced by shamans affiliated with his wife, because they have warned that Cheong Wa Dae is cursed and Yoon should avoid working there.
Further credence for this suspicion is that Yoon has said if the move is not completed by May 10, he could work for the time being from the office of his transition team in central Seoul. Yoon's daily commute across the Han River from his home in southern Seoul threatens to cause massive traffic jams along one of the busiest routes in the city.
Meanwhile, Yoon faces a daunting list of challenges. North Korea's recent missile tests are increasing military tensions. Inflation is rising and interest rate hikes could burst the property bubble and trigger a recession.
Yoon's defenders argue that he is a political maverick unbeholden to vested interests, which will enable him to shake up the establishment and achieve his goals. But there is the risk that being a political novice could also lead to mistakes.
An early indication of public support for Yoon will come in June when local elections are held. The fear is that a floundering Yoon administration could lash out at political opponents by targeting Moon Jae-in or Lee Jae-myung for prosecution in an effort to distract the public. But the use of these tactics could also lead to the revival of candlelit protests to counter what would be seen as democratic backsliding under Yoon.
John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.
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