Korea and Ukraine

By John Burton

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is likely to have a major impact on Korea, aside from the sanctions that Seoul has already imposed on Moscow.

Its earliest effect might be felt this week when Koreans go to the polls on Wednesday to elect their new president in a closely fought contest. The Russian attack could strengthen the argument of conservative candidate Yoon Suk-yeol that he is the best-positioned to protect South Korea against a nuclear-armed North Korea. Yoon has adopted a more hardline approach on North Korea than his liberal rival, Lee Jae-myung, who supports the inter-Korean reconciliation policy of President Moon Jae-in.

Yoon is hoping that voters will agree that taking a tough stance on North Korea, which is aligned with Russia, is justified in light of the invasion. Yoon has provoked controversy with his proposal that additional units of the U.S. THAAD anti-missile system should be deployed in Korea and in suggesting that he might be willing to carry out a preemptive strike on North Korea if it continues nuclear and long-range missile tests.

His "peace through strength" policy and calls for strengthening the Korea-U.S. military alliance are likely to play well at a time of rising global tensions. Conservatives are arguing that North Korea might take advantage of the U.S. focus on the Ukraine crisis to launch a provocation against the South.

The Moon government's proposals for an end-of-war declaration and peace treaty with North Korea, which Lee supports, suddenly look out of place or even naive in what has been characterized by some as the "post-post-war era" or "Cold War II," which has been ushered in by the Russian invasion. Lee has not helped his cause by suggesting during a recent presidential debate that Ukraine was partly to blame for the Russian attack due to its desire to join NATO.

The new Cold War mood on the Korean Peninsula is likely to increase since the Russian invasion will strengthen North Korea's resolve to keep its nuclear arsenal. Pyongyang does not want to face the same fate as Libya or Ukraine, which both gave up their nuclear weapons only to be later attacked by outside powers. In the case of Ukraine, it agreed in 1994 to hand over its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal in return for security guarantees by the U.S., the U.K. and Russia.

There appears to be little hope now that North Korea will ever agree to a denuclearization deal with Washington. Instead, North Korea may now be tempted to accelerate its buildup of nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. Pyongyang is already signaling this possibility with its recent spate of tests of advanced missiles, including hypersonic and intermediate-range ones.

Where once Russia offered the U.S. to help mediate a nuclear deal with North Korea, the invasion of Ukraine has now driven Moscow and Pyongyang closer together in their opposition to the West. North Korea was one of only five countries to vote against a U.N. General Assembly resolution condemning the attack.

With little prospect of North Korea giving up its nuclear arsenal and growing worries that China is seeking regional dominance, this situation may increase the chances of Seoul deciding to pursue its own nuclear weapons program eventually. Even if South Korea decides to forgo the nuclear option, it will likely pursue an increased military buildup, with an emphasis on the development of local weaponry.

Seoul has recently said that it will accelerate the development of "long-range, ultra-precision and high-power ballistic missiles," after witnessing the use of short-range Iskander ballistic missiles by Russia in Ukraine. North Korea already has developed similar weapons based on the Iskander design. They would likely be used in a first strike attack similar to that carried out by Russia in Ukraine.

The invasion of Ukraine is setting off a series of events that is likely to increase the odds of the Korean Peninsula becoming a future flashpoint, as Moscow, Beijing and Pyongyang close ranks.

One scary scenario being discussed in Washington is that Moscow might eventually use a tactical nuclear weapon strike in Ukraine to end the confrontation on terms favorable to the Kremlin. Although the possibility of this event happening is still remote, nuclear weapons represent a centerpiece of Russia's military doctrine. The use of a low-yield nuclear weapon on the battlefield in Ukraine to reverse losses would represent what the Russians call an "escalation-deescalation" strategy, where it raises the military stakes in the hopes of frightening its opponent in order to reduce resistance.

If the postwar nuclear taboo is broken, it will likely persuade Korea, Japan and other countries to accelerate their nuclear weapons programs. It will also increase the chances that the nuclear threshold will be crossed in any future Korean conflict. Welcome to the new normal.

John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.