By John Burton
Korea faces a difficult challenge in meeting its ambitious targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which it promised in relation to this month's holding of the 26th U.N. Climate Change conference, COP 26.
President Moon Jae-in announced that Korea, the world's seventh biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, would set a more stringent target by cutting its emissions by 40 percent from 2018 levels by 2030, and that the country would be carbon-neutral by 2050, a pledge that was enshrined in law in September.
In addition, Korea was among 100 countries that said they would cut their methane emissions by 30 percent by 2030. It was also among 40 countries that pledged to end their use of coal for electricity generation by 2050 ― a big concession since the country is a major consumer of coal, the dirtiest of the fossil fuels.
Environmental groups say that the targets will have to be raised even further if Korea is to meet its commitments under the 2015 Paris Climate Accord, which aims to limit global warming to within 1.5 degrees higher than pre-industrial average levels.
Fossil fuels now account for two-thirds of Korea's electricity production. Under the current plans, Korea wants to reduce coal power generation from 42 percent of its energy mix to 22 percent by 2030, while increasing renewables to 30 percent. In fact, the Climate Action Tracker suggests that Korea would actually need to reduce its emissions by 59 percent from 2018 levels by 2030 in order to meet its 2050 carbon neutrality goal.
The decline in coal usage will leave a big gap in Korea's energy resources. What will replace it? Nuclear power, which is carbon-neutral, would be one obvious choice. But the Moon administration controversially decided to phase out nuclear power due to safety concerns after faults were discovered in several nuclear plants. Several aging plants have been closed, while the construction of new ones has been delayed.
Liquified natural gas (LNG), which is considered the cleanest of fossil fuels, would provide an alternative, but this fossil fuel too might be phased out over the coming decades based on a recommendation released by the Presidential Committee on Carbon Neutrality in October. The committee added that it might be possible to retain LNG if carbon emissions were able to be captured and stored, although these technologies still remain unproven.
So with coal, nuclear energy and possibly LNG eliminated, Korea has to focus on renewables such as solar, offshore wind and green hydrogen for its energy sources. There is also talk that Korea could develop small modular nuclear reactors that would help address nuclear waste management issues.
But this best-case scenario is frankly unrealistic and will be difficult to achieve. One reason is that the manufacturing industries, from car plants to shipyards, remain heavily dependent on the power generated by coal and LNG. They will not be easily replaced quickly. Moreover, Korea is locked into decades-long LNG procurement contracts.
Tough environmental standards could clash with the growth of Korea's heavily industrialized economy. Industry generates 37 percent of Korea's gross domestic product, compared with the OECD average of 27 percent, and accounts for more than 80 percent of exports, according to The Economist magazine.
In addition, while the public supports climate action policies in general, there is also concern that switching to cleaner forms of energy would entail higher electricity bills, although the cost of renewables is rapidly falling.
One response that industry could take to help avoid job losses and production cuts would be to focus on green sectors, such as producing electric vehicles and batteries, as well as building ships that run on cleaner fuels, such as hydrogen. But these developments will also take time.
Politics, in the shape of who will be the next president, will also have a role to play in what Korea does next. Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung supports the emission targets set by President Moon and has even suggested that the deadline to achieve net zero should be advanced by 10 years to 2040.
He also favors increased support for renewables, the introduction of a carbon tax regime and the creation of a new ministry focused on climate change.
His conservative opponent, Yoon Seok-yul of the People Power Party, has been vaguer about setting a specific timeline for achieving carbon neutrality. He is believed to favor retaining nuclear power, while gradually phasing out coal and introducing a carbon tax scheme.
Intriguingly, North Korea could play a role in solving Seoul's clean energy dilemma. President Moon has mentioned cooperating with North Korea in joint reforestation efforts which could "mitigate greenhouse gas emissions across the entire Korean Peninsula," by up to five percent.
More importantly, South Korea could eventually tap North Korea's considerable hydropower resources, which now provide half of the North's electricity power. After all, the political landscape of the Korean Peninsula could look very different 30 years from now.
John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.
 |
President Moon Jae-in announced that Korea, the world's seventh biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, would set a more stringent target by cutting its emissions by 40 percent from 2018 levels by 2030, and that the country would be carbon-neutral by 2050, a pledge that was enshrined in law in September.
In addition, Korea was among 100 countries that said they would cut their methane emissions by 30 percent by 2030. It was also among 40 countries that pledged to end their use of coal for electricity generation by 2050 ― a big concession since the country is a major consumer of coal, the dirtiest of the fossil fuels.
Environmental groups say that the targets will have to be raised even further if Korea is to meet its commitments under the 2015 Paris Climate Accord, which aims to limit global warming to within 1.5 degrees higher than pre-industrial average levels.
Fossil fuels now account for two-thirds of Korea's electricity production. Under the current plans, Korea wants to reduce coal power generation from 42 percent of its energy mix to 22 percent by 2030, while increasing renewables to 30 percent. In fact, the Climate Action Tracker suggests that Korea would actually need to reduce its emissions by 59 percent from 2018 levels by 2030 in order to meet its 2050 carbon neutrality goal.
The decline in coal usage will leave a big gap in Korea's energy resources. What will replace it? Nuclear power, which is carbon-neutral, would be one obvious choice. But the Moon administration controversially decided to phase out nuclear power due to safety concerns after faults were discovered in several nuclear plants. Several aging plants have been closed, while the construction of new ones has been delayed.
Liquified natural gas (LNG), which is considered the cleanest of fossil fuels, would provide an alternative, but this fossil fuel too might be phased out over the coming decades based on a recommendation released by the Presidential Committee on Carbon Neutrality in October. The committee added that it might be possible to retain LNG if carbon emissions were able to be captured and stored, although these technologies still remain unproven.
So with coal, nuclear energy and possibly LNG eliminated, Korea has to focus on renewables such as solar, offshore wind and green hydrogen for its energy sources. There is also talk that Korea could develop small modular nuclear reactors that would help address nuclear waste management issues.
But this best-case scenario is frankly unrealistic and will be difficult to achieve. One reason is that the manufacturing industries, from car plants to shipyards, remain heavily dependent on the power generated by coal and LNG. They will not be easily replaced quickly. Moreover, Korea is locked into decades-long LNG procurement contracts.
Tough environmental standards could clash with the growth of Korea's heavily industrialized economy. Industry generates 37 percent of Korea's gross domestic product, compared with the OECD average of 27 percent, and accounts for more than 80 percent of exports, according to The Economist magazine.
In addition, while the public supports climate action policies in general, there is also concern that switching to cleaner forms of energy would entail higher electricity bills, although the cost of renewables is rapidly falling.
One response that industry could take to help avoid job losses and production cuts would be to focus on green sectors, such as producing electric vehicles and batteries, as well as building ships that run on cleaner fuels, such as hydrogen. But these developments will also take time.
Politics, in the shape of who will be the next president, will also have a role to play in what Korea does next. Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung supports the emission targets set by President Moon and has even suggested that the deadline to achieve net zero should be advanced by 10 years to 2040.
He also favors increased support for renewables, the introduction of a carbon tax regime and the creation of a new ministry focused on climate change.
His conservative opponent, Yoon Seok-yul of the People Power Party, has been vaguer about setting a specific timeline for achieving carbon neutrality. He is believed to favor retaining nuclear power, while gradually phasing out coal and introducing a carbon tax scheme.
Intriguingly, North Korea could play a role in solving Seoul's clean energy dilemma. President Moon has mentioned cooperating with North Korea in joint reforestation efforts which could "mitigate greenhouse gas emissions across the entire Korean Peninsula," by up to five percent.
More importantly, South Korea could eventually tap North Korea's considerable hydropower resources, which now provide half of the North's electricity power. After all, the political landscape of the Korean Peninsula could look very different 30 years from now.
John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.
![[ANALYSIS] China's ban on Micron tests Washington-Seoul alliance](https://img.koreatimes.co.kr/upload/thumbnailV2/1785a57b07ae45a7b7db49fdf4acd720.jpg/dims/resize/178/optimize)
![[INTERVIEW] Long-awaited extension of Korean Pavilion at Venice Biennale to be pushed forward](https://img.koreatimes.co.kr/upload/thumbnailV2/d8d5090875824ce08a90bb2c5a8f8c05.jpg/dims/resize/178/optimize)
