No way out

By John Burton

During his recent Senate confirmation hearings, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he was in favor of "increasing pressure on North Korea to come to the negotiating table" on dismantling its nuclear weapons program. But he later added that at the same time he would support easing regulations that hinder humanitarian aid deliveries to North Korea.

"Even if we have a strong grievance with the regime or with the government … We, to the best of our ability, try to do so in a way that in the first instance isn't harmful to the people in the country," Blinken said. "We do want to make sure that anything we do, we have an eye on the humanitarian side of the equation, not just the security side of the equation."

This policy of increasing sanctions while promoting humanitarian aid works at cross-purposes. Would North Korea, for example, accept humanitarian aid from the U.S. while also being subject to a tighter sanctions regime?

In many ways Blinken's comments reflect the same approach taken by the previous administration of President Donald Trump. In the wake of North Korea's nuclear and missile tests in 2017, the Trump administration pushed through tougher international sanctions at the United Nations. It also tightened U.S. sanctions and related regulations, including barring Americans from visiting North Korea without permission from Washington.

These measures hampered humanitarian relief efforts. NGOs were required to receive a sanctions exemption from the U.N. for delivering assistance to North Korea and U.S. humanitarian workers faced delays in going there due to the travel ban.

However, once Trump began meeting North Korean leader Kim Jung-un in 2018 as part of a new engagement policy, the U.S. quietly sought to encourage humanitarian help by streamlining the approval process of the U.N. sanctions committee to speed aid deliveries.

These efforts continued in the waning days of the Trump administration. In a little-noticed action at the end of November, the U.N. sanctions committee agreed at the request of the U.S. to broaden the scope of exemptions for humanitarian groups operating in North Korea.

Previously, NGOs had six months to deliver humanitarian goods once they gained U.N. approval for the transaction, but under the latest measure this was increased to nine months. Longer exemptions would be granted to aid groups that provided "a well-founded justification, such as transportation delays related to a pandemic." The U.N. panel also agreed to expedite the approval process for exemptions, particularly those related to COVID-19.

These actions might give hope to those who believe that the provision of humanitarian aid might provide an opening to renewed contact between the U.S. and North Korea.

Kurt Campbell, who has since been appointed Biden's chief Asian advisor on the National Security Council, reportedly told visiting Korean lawmakers in November that "sending a message to North Korea to be patient through humanitarian assistance is a good idea." He added that "such an approach may also be a chance to further strengthen" cooperation with Seoul, which has favored humanitarian aid to North Korea.

Unfortunately, North Korea's year-long lockdown against COVID-19 has disrupted humanitarian aid activities. The closure of its border with China has delayed pandemic-related aid. Restrictions on cross-border and internal travel along with quarantine measures have impeded the international NGOs working in the country. As a result, the number of foreign aid workers has dropped from an estimated 75 at the beginning of 2020 to only three at the end of the year.

The decline in international aid projects is also reflected in the number of exemptions sought from the U.N. sanctions panel last year. A total of 30 exemptions were granted, but most of them were in the first half of the year before North Korea's COVID-19 restrictions began to bite.

The continued absence of international NGOs on the ground will delay the eventual resumption of humanitarian programs and will make it more difficult to address North Korea's multiple challenges, which include food shortages, flood damage from a series of natural disasters, and poor health conditions.

Another casualty of North Korea's strict lockdown has been efforts by President Moon Jae-in to achieve inter-Korean cooperation by offering aid, which has been rejected by Pyongyang.

North Korea has suggested that it needs to clamp down on international aid to reduce the risk of COVID-19 exposure to its population. But it also fears exposing its vulnerabilities to foreign observers during the pandemic.

The only opening to the outside world that Pyongyang is likely to take in the coming months is its quest to obtain COVID-19 vaccines, probably from Russia and China.

Despite the major economic costs it has caused, North Korea's behavior during the pandemic appears to refute Blinken's argument that a combination of sanctions and humanitarian aid will deter Pyongyang from pursuing its nuclear program.

John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.