By John Burton
It is pretty clear what President-elect Joe Biden's Korea policy will be. He will restore the battered alliance with South Korea, including a quick resolution of differences over defense burden sharing raised by President Donald Trump. He will also take a tougher line on North Korea than Trump.
But how events will develop over the coming months is less clear. Will Biden, for example, resume full-scale U.S.-South Korean military exercises this spring, which North Korea views as a "hostile act" by Washington?
Will Pyongyang respond by resuming the testing of long-range missiles, more than three years after it suspended them? If North Korea takes that step, will the U.S. then push for additional tougher international sanctions? Events could quickly spiral out of control.
Biden might want to avoid any immediate confrontation with North Korea. His administration would prefer to focus on domestic problems, including battling the COVID-19 pandemic, restoring economic growth and healing the racial divide in the U.S. Moreover, it usually takes about six months for any new administration to assemble a functioning national security and defense team.
Whether North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will allow Biden any breathing space is another matter. Being called a "thug" and "a guy who has virtually no social redeeming value" by Biden is not likely to go down well with Kim, who may express his displeasure by conducting an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test. Pyongyang has already made known what it thinks of Biden by calling him "a rabid dog" last year.
Kim realizes that his days holding a summit with a U.S. president are over, at least for the time being. Biden is likely to revert to the North Korea playbook of the Obama administration, in which he served as vice president. Obama's "strategic patience" policy on North Korea meant limiting engagement with Pyongyang until it took steps to roll back its nuclear and missile program.
But Biden could face pushback from Seoul on taking a tougher line on North Korea, because it jeopardizes President Moon Jae-in's policy of promoting reconciliation with Pyongyang. Tensions between Seoul and Washington on the issue could remain even after Moon leaves office in 2022, since his successor is likely to be another progressive politician.
Surprisingly, Biden might also face some resistance in the U.S. Congress to a hardline policy on North Korea. Republican lawmakers, who a decade ago strongly opposed engagement with Pyongyang, have become more isolationist under the influence of Trump and may seek to uphold the foreign policy principles of their fallen hero.
One interesting recent development has been the leader of the pro-Trump Freedom Caucus in the House of Representatives joining forces with progressive Democratic legislators, one of whom is likely to head the House Foreign Affairs Committee, to support a resolution calling for a formal end to the Korean War.
Such pressure might provide an opportunity for Biden to take several tentative steps to keep negotiations with North Korea on track. One would be to ease strict U.S. Treasury Department guidelines on the delivery of humanitarian aid to North Korea by American NGOs.
Another would be to endorse the end-of-war declaration in a first step to signing a peace treaty with Pyongyang as a confidence-building measure. The Moon administration is already pushing for such a declaration and would welcome the move by the Biden administration.
Biden could also improve relations with Seoul by supporting more inter-Korean cooperative projects being proposed by the Moon administration, which also hopes to retain a mediator role between Washington and Pyongyang in denuclearization talks. But Seoul will also need to narrow differences with Washington by coordinating its moves with the Biden administration.
Biden does have the reputation of a man willing to compromise, so his hawkish talk about North Korea during the campaign might be toned down once he is in office.
Seoul would prefer to see Biden pursue an interim deal with North Korea, such as partially lifting sanctions if Pyongyang agrees to begin dismantling its nuclear production capability and continuing its moratorium on nuclear and missile testing.
North Korea may not be the only issue to cause divisions between the U.S. and South Korea. There is also the question of China. While the U.S. is South Korea's only military ally, China is its biggest trading partner.
Seoul would like to see more cooperation between Beijing and Washington, including a collective approach to dealing with North Korea.
Biden is seeking to persuade China to put pressure on North Korea to resolve the nuclear issue, but whether it will do so depends on the state of Sino-American relations when rivalry is growing between the two powers.
A step forward would occur if Biden proposes a resumption of "four-party talks" on North Korea, involving the U.S., China, South Korea and Japan, to iron out differences.
John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.
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But how events will develop over the coming months is less clear. Will Biden, for example, resume full-scale U.S.-South Korean military exercises this spring, which North Korea views as a "hostile act" by Washington?
Will Pyongyang respond by resuming the testing of long-range missiles, more than three years after it suspended them? If North Korea takes that step, will the U.S. then push for additional tougher international sanctions? Events could quickly spiral out of control.
Biden might want to avoid any immediate confrontation with North Korea. His administration would prefer to focus on domestic problems, including battling the COVID-19 pandemic, restoring economic growth and healing the racial divide in the U.S. Moreover, it usually takes about six months for any new administration to assemble a functioning national security and defense team.
Whether North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will allow Biden any breathing space is another matter. Being called a "thug" and "a guy who has virtually no social redeeming value" by Biden is not likely to go down well with Kim, who may express his displeasure by conducting an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test. Pyongyang has already made known what it thinks of Biden by calling him "a rabid dog" last year.
Kim realizes that his days holding a summit with a U.S. president are over, at least for the time being. Biden is likely to revert to the North Korea playbook of the Obama administration, in which he served as vice president. Obama's "strategic patience" policy on North Korea meant limiting engagement with Pyongyang until it took steps to roll back its nuclear and missile program.
But Biden could face pushback from Seoul on taking a tougher line on North Korea, because it jeopardizes President Moon Jae-in's policy of promoting reconciliation with Pyongyang. Tensions between Seoul and Washington on the issue could remain even after Moon leaves office in 2022, since his successor is likely to be another progressive politician.
Surprisingly, Biden might also face some resistance in the U.S. Congress to a hardline policy on North Korea. Republican lawmakers, who a decade ago strongly opposed engagement with Pyongyang, have become more isolationist under the influence of Trump and may seek to uphold the foreign policy principles of their fallen hero.
One interesting recent development has been the leader of the pro-Trump Freedom Caucus in the House of Representatives joining forces with progressive Democratic legislators, one of whom is likely to head the House Foreign Affairs Committee, to support a resolution calling for a formal end to the Korean War.
Such pressure might provide an opportunity for Biden to take several tentative steps to keep negotiations with North Korea on track. One would be to ease strict U.S. Treasury Department guidelines on the delivery of humanitarian aid to North Korea by American NGOs.
Another would be to endorse the end-of-war declaration in a first step to signing a peace treaty with Pyongyang as a confidence-building measure. The Moon administration is already pushing for such a declaration and would welcome the move by the Biden administration.
Biden could also improve relations with Seoul by supporting more inter-Korean cooperative projects being proposed by the Moon administration, which also hopes to retain a mediator role between Washington and Pyongyang in denuclearization talks. But Seoul will also need to narrow differences with Washington by coordinating its moves with the Biden administration.
Biden does have the reputation of a man willing to compromise, so his hawkish talk about North Korea during the campaign might be toned down once he is in office.
Seoul would prefer to see Biden pursue an interim deal with North Korea, such as partially lifting sanctions if Pyongyang agrees to begin dismantling its nuclear production capability and continuing its moratorium on nuclear and missile testing.
North Korea may not be the only issue to cause divisions between the U.S. and South Korea. There is also the question of China. While the U.S. is South Korea's only military ally, China is its biggest trading partner.
Seoul would like to see more cooperation between Beijing and Washington, including a collective approach to dealing with North Korea.
Biden is seeking to persuade China to put pressure on North Korea to resolve the nuclear issue, but whether it will do so depends on the state of Sino-American relations when rivalry is growing between the two powers.
A step forward would occur if Biden proposes a resumption of "four-party talks" on North Korea, involving the U.S., China, South Korea and Japan, to iron out differences.
John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.
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