By John Burton
As the 2020 U.S. presidential elections approach, it is extraordinary to see how the Trump administration has transformed America's relations with the Korean Peninsula over the past four years.
Since 1948, when Korea regained its independence, the U.S. has traditionally been a steadfast defense ally of South Korea while it has cautiously kept North Korea at arm's length and often treated the country with contempt.
In many ways, President Trump has turned America's relations with the two Koreas topsy-turvy. Trump has apparently established genuine personal rapport with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, according to Bob Woodward's new book, "Rage." You are my friend and always will be," Trump told Kim at one point, while Kim spoke of a "deep and special friendship between us."
Meanwhile Trump keeps criticizing South Korea for growing rich on "terrible" trade deals with the U.S. and for not paying its "fair share" of defense costs to support U.S. troops in the country, even threatening to withdraw them.
Whether Trump wins or loses in the Nov. 3 election, the next U.S. government in 2021 will confront a "new normal" when it comes to the Korean Peninsula as a result of Trump's actions.
This provides an opportunity for Joe Biden, if he is elected president, to move away from the "strategic patience" approach, which amounted to a policy of containment without much engagement that was adopted by the administration of President Barack Obama, when Biden was vice president. Biden instead should build on the engagement policy that has been forged by Trump.
First of all, Biden should maintain the direct lines of dialogue with Kim that were established by Trump. The personal diplomacy of Trump promised the creation of a framework for negotiating with Kim, the only person who really matters in North Korea.
The Trump-Kim meetings have paid dividends. North Korea has agreed to suspend its nuclear and long-range missile tests despite Trump not easing sanctions. Moreover, the meetings show that Kim is rational and not crazy or suicidal, which often served as a pretext among U.S. hardliners for justifying a preventive military strike on North Korea.
U.S. relations with South Korea are also likely to improve under Biden which could improve the chances that President Moon Jae-in might once again play a useful intermediary role. Pyongyang has watched as Trump has denigrated Seoul over the past few years, which has led it to spurning Moon's outreach efforts. If Biden shows more respect to Moon, so will North Korea.
But Biden must also bring U.S. policy closer to that advocated by Moon. One of Trump's problems in reaching a deal with Kim was that he was surrounded by hardline advisers, including U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former National Security Adviser John Bolton.
Biden also has hardline advisers on Korea in his foreign policy stable, but he must adopt a more progressive focus. Although the denuclearization of North Korea remains Washington's ultimate goal, it cannot be achieved if continued economic sanctions remain the only policy tool.
Rather, the U.S. should nudge North Korea to become a more normal state. It could promise to lift some international sanctions if Pyongyang agreed to a verifiable freeze on nuclear weapons and missile production.
The U.S. could also scale back what North Korea considers "hostile acts" in order to reduce tensions. Trump has already reduced joint U.S.-Korean military exercises, although Kim was "very upset" that some continued because he considered them "provocative," according to Woodward's book.
Biden should play on the fact that North Korea and the U.S. share some of the same strategic concerns, namely the growing power of China in Northeast Asia. Woodward reports, for example, that Pompeo concluded North Korea wanted U.S. troops to remain stationed in South Korea because they served as a restraint on China.
A Biden administration could also strongly support humanitarian assistance in North Korea by U.N. agencies, which Pyongyang favors as a source of such aid instead of the U.S., South Korea and other countries. U.N. programs in North Korea are severely underfunded and greater U.S. financial support to them would be non-threatening and help win the trust of the government in Pyongyang.
The United States should adopt a similar behind-the-scenes approach in other areas related to North Korea. It should encourage countries such as Vietnam, Mongolia and Singapore to offer their advice on gradual economic reforms, perhaps again through U.N. agencies, since all three are seen as economic models by Pyongyang.
For all his faults, Trump has shown out-of-the-box thinking when it comes to North Korea, marking a departure from traditional foreign policy. Biden should do the same.
John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.
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Since 1948, when Korea regained its independence, the U.S. has traditionally been a steadfast defense ally of South Korea while it has cautiously kept North Korea at arm's length and often treated the country with contempt.
In many ways, President Trump has turned America's relations with the two Koreas topsy-turvy. Trump has apparently established genuine personal rapport with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, according to Bob Woodward's new book, "Rage." You are my friend and always will be," Trump told Kim at one point, while Kim spoke of a "deep and special friendship between us."
Meanwhile Trump keeps criticizing South Korea for growing rich on "terrible" trade deals with the U.S. and for not paying its "fair share" of defense costs to support U.S. troops in the country, even threatening to withdraw them.
Whether Trump wins or loses in the Nov. 3 election, the next U.S. government in 2021 will confront a "new normal" when it comes to the Korean Peninsula as a result of Trump's actions.
This provides an opportunity for Joe Biden, if he is elected president, to move away from the "strategic patience" approach, which amounted to a policy of containment without much engagement that was adopted by the administration of President Barack Obama, when Biden was vice president. Biden instead should build on the engagement policy that has been forged by Trump.
First of all, Biden should maintain the direct lines of dialogue with Kim that were established by Trump. The personal diplomacy of Trump promised the creation of a framework for negotiating with Kim, the only person who really matters in North Korea.
The Trump-Kim meetings have paid dividends. North Korea has agreed to suspend its nuclear and long-range missile tests despite Trump not easing sanctions. Moreover, the meetings show that Kim is rational and not crazy or suicidal, which often served as a pretext among U.S. hardliners for justifying a preventive military strike on North Korea.
U.S. relations with South Korea are also likely to improve under Biden which could improve the chances that President Moon Jae-in might once again play a useful intermediary role. Pyongyang has watched as Trump has denigrated Seoul over the past few years, which has led it to spurning Moon's outreach efforts. If Biden shows more respect to Moon, so will North Korea.
But Biden must also bring U.S. policy closer to that advocated by Moon. One of Trump's problems in reaching a deal with Kim was that he was surrounded by hardline advisers, including U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former National Security Adviser John Bolton.
Biden also has hardline advisers on Korea in his foreign policy stable, but he must adopt a more progressive focus. Although the denuclearization of North Korea remains Washington's ultimate goal, it cannot be achieved if continued economic sanctions remain the only policy tool.
Rather, the U.S. should nudge North Korea to become a more normal state. It could promise to lift some international sanctions if Pyongyang agreed to a verifiable freeze on nuclear weapons and missile production.
The U.S. could also scale back what North Korea considers "hostile acts" in order to reduce tensions. Trump has already reduced joint U.S.-Korean military exercises, although Kim was "very upset" that some continued because he considered them "provocative," according to Woodward's book.
Biden should play on the fact that North Korea and the U.S. share some of the same strategic concerns, namely the growing power of China in Northeast Asia. Woodward reports, for example, that Pompeo concluded North Korea wanted U.S. troops to remain stationed in South Korea because they served as a restraint on China.
A Biden administration could also strongly support humanitarian assistance in North Korea by U.N. agencies, which Pyongyang favors as a source of such aid instead of the U.S., South Korea and other countries. U.N. programs in North Korea are severely underfunded and greater U.S. financial support to them would be non-threatening and help win the trust of the government in Pyongyang.
The United States should adopt a similar behind-the-scenes approach in other areas related to North Korea. It should encourage countries such as Vietnam, Mongolia and Singapore to offer their advice on gradual economic reforms, perhaps again through U.N. agencies, since all three are seen as economic models by Pyongyang.
For all his faults, Trump has shown out-of-the-box thinking when it comes to North Korea, marking a departure from traditional foreign policy. Biden should do the same.
John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.
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