Second round

By John Burton

Until recently, North Korea appeared to have kept COVID-19 until control. Like other countries, such as Vietnam, that have reported few cases or fatalities, North Korea recognized early the danger that the pandemic posed and took draconian measures to contain it by closing its borders in late January. It afterwards claimed it was virus-free.

But the situation has changed in the last month. Pyongyang said that a North Korean defector who decided to return after three years in South Korea had brought the virus with him when he crossed the DMZ on July 19 and created "an emergency event" in Gaeseong. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un called an emergency meeting of the Worker's Party Politburo on July 25 to discuss the situation. Gaeseong was placed in immediate lockdown and the country's Minister of Public Health warned that "a dangerous crisis has occurred in which the virus may have entered our borders."

It was the first official acknowledgement that what Kim Jong-un has called the country's "shining success" in containing COVID-19, with its dubious claim that there were no cases of infection in the country, had been broken. It may have been politically convenient for Pyongyang to claim that the source of the virus came from South Korea at a time of inter-Korean tensions when it's possible the disease entered the country via another route.

Since then, North Korea has reintroduced tighter border controls and quarantine measures that had been eased in recent months when it appeared that the COVID-19 situation was contained. A second round of lockdowns would pose perhaps the biggest challenge to North Korea since the famine of the 1990s.

The first lockdown has already damaged the North Korean economy. Stricter controls on cross-border movements in response to COVID-19 have caused North Korean exports to China to fall by nearly 75 percent in the first half of 2020 from the same period in 2019 and imports from China to decline by 67 percent, according to the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul.

Analysts are forecasting the economy could contract by at least 8.5 percent this year after it showed signs of recovery in 2019 despite increased international sanctions. Disrupted raw material supply chains with China could depress construction activity, which has been the key economic driver in North Korea in the last few years.

The possibility of a large-scale COVID-19 outbreak would further pressure economic activity and coincide with several other recent unfavorable developments. Heavy rains this summer, the worst since 2007, have caused flooding, raising concerns about crop damage and food supply shortages. Flood damage is reported to be severe in North Hwanghae Province, the country's main agricultural region.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently estimated that the number of North Koreans facing food insecurity, meaning they consume less than 2,100 calories a day, has risen from 57 percent to 60 percent over the past year, representing an increase of 700,000 persons, as a result of the pandemic. A malnourished population is also more vulnerable to COVID-19 if it spreads.

Even if the COVID-19 outbreak turns out to be less serious than feared, the continued lockdown measures in the meantime will adversely impact the country. North Korea sees little alternative to resorting to drastic measures since its health infrastructure is underequipped and understaffed.

A shutdown will nonetheless cost lives. The strict border controls mean there is a shortage of imported medicines and supplies for patients with chronic illnesses such as cardiovascular disease, cancer and diabetes. Aid groups are finding it difficult to ship COVID-19-related equipment, including thermal imaging cameras, to North Korea. Another area of concern is the future of international aid programs to fight tuberculosis and malaria in North Korea, which has high rates of both illnesses.

The lockdown restrictions have also disrupted humanitarian efforts in other ways. International aid workers have limited on-the-ground access and the monitoring of most assistance is difficult. A ban on the entry of foreign persons means that the normal rotation of U.N. and NGO aid workers in and out of the country is being held up.

North Korea, like other countries that claimed an early victory over COVID-19, is now finding that the virus is a persistent enemy that cannot be conquered easily. It is likely that North Korea will maintain quarantine and other restrictive conditions until COVID-19 is controlled globally or a vaccine is available.

A lengthy lockdown will put North Korea's ideology of "juche," or self-sufficiency, to the test. Among several key questions are whether it will lead to internal changes as the economic knock-on effects could prove to be damaging and whether it could even weaken Kim Jong-un's hold on power.

John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.