By John Burton
There are many times when I wish I was back in Korea after I left the country for the U.S. in late 2016, but never more so than now. I compare how Korea has been able to contain COVID-19 while the disease appears to be spiraling out of control in the U.S.
The difference between the countries that have responded successfully to the outbreak and those that fail is largely due to leadership. Korea and other countries, especially those in East Asia, that dealt with the situation well, recognized early the seriousness of the COVID-19 threat and took decisive actions, from mandating mask wearing to testing. Their response was largely based on their experience dealing with similar disease outbreaks such as SARS in 2003.
In contrast, the Trump administration in the U.S. sought to deny that COVID-19 posed any serious danger. This reaction reflected President Trump's reluctance to acknowledge the impact of the disease. He wishes that it would just go away because it threatens his re-election chances this year. COVID-19 has become a highly politicized issue in the U.S., with Trump and his Republican supporters blaming scientists for exaggerating the severity of the disease and implying they are doing so in hopes of the Democrats winning in November. Even as simple an issue as wearing a face mask has become a bone of contention.
The key lesson from comparing the response in the U.S. and East Asia is that COVID-19 needs to be stopped early, otherwise it is likely to surge out of control despite all the efforts at testing and contact tracing.
The situation in the U.S. could become worse in the coming months. One reason is apparent complacency, accompanied by a sense of fatalism. During the lockdown period in the spring, the U.S. managed to "flatten the curve" after an initial surge of COVID-19 cases in March. But due to growing public weariness with strict protection measures, many states reopened their economies too early and many people began ignoring elementary precautions, such as wearing face masks. The number of COVID-19 cases has started to accelerate once again.
A second wave of outbreaks is feared for the winter months as colder weather reduces outdoor activities and many schools reopen, creating crowded conditions that help the spread of COVID-19. Many Americans may decide to hunker down once again, avoiding travel, entertainment venues, restaurants and stores. This could stall any economic recovery.
As it is, the U.S. economy has been on life support due to generous government spending and unemployment benefits in recent months. But many of these emergency measures are due to expire at the end of July. The Republicans and Democrats remain deadlocked in Congress about a new relief package, risking a cut in unemployment benefits, federal aid to state and local government aid, and job creation incentives. The U.S. could soon be staring into the abyss of a depression as financial support for many Americans disappears.
Many are hoping that the discovery of a vaccine will solve the COVID-19 problem. Moderna, a U.S. drugmaker, last week reported that a coronavirus vaccine it was developing had proved to be safe and effective in Phase 1 trials. But this is still a long way from fully developing, manufacturing and distributing a cure. It is uncertain whether this or another vaccine would provide more than limited immunity even if it works.
Given the fiasco of testing in the U.S. there are also concerns that the government would fail to effectively roll out a program to immunize the entire population. If vaccine hopes fall short, the likely alternative would be obtaining herd immunity over time, although this would result in a heavy death toll. In the meantime, the economy would continue to sputter.
Others are hoping that the election of Joe Biden in November to replace Donald Trump as president will bring in a more competent government to handle the situation. But there is a growing chance that the election in a polarized America will descend into chaos. Many Americans will vote by absentee ballot to reduce their risk of exposure to COVID-19 at polling stations. But President Trump has said absentee ballots are a vehicle for voter fraud despite the lack of evidence to back this claim. Unless he is decisively defeated, he is likely to claim the election was "rigged" and provoke unrest on the streets.
Given the importance of the U.S. as a major military ally and trading partner, Koreans need to watch closely what happens in the country in the coming months. Uncertainty in the U.S. raises a host of issues for Korea as it tries to navigate increased tensions between the U.S and China, and deals with Pyongyang.
John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.
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The difference between the countries that have responded successfully to the outbreak and those that fail is largely due to leadership. Korea and other countries, especially those in East Asia, that dealt with the situation well, recognized early the seriousness of the COVID-19 threat and took decisive actions, from mandating mask wearing to testing. Their response was largely based on their experience dealing with similar disease outbreaks such as SARS in 2003.
In contrast, the Trump administration in the U.S. sought to deny that COVID-19 posed any serious danger. This reaction reflected President Trump's reluctance to acknowledge the impact of the disease. He wishes that it would just go away because it threatens his re-election chances this year. COVID-19 has become a highly politicized issue in the U.S., with Trump and his Republican supporters blaming scientists for exaggerating the severity of the disease and implying they are doing so in hopes of the Democrats winning in November. Even as simple an issue as wearing a face mask has become a bone of contention.
The key lesson from comparing the response in the U.S. and East Asia is that COVID-19 needs to be stopped early, otherwise it is likely to surge out of control despite all the efforts at testing and contact tracing.
The situation in the U.S. could become worse in the coming months. One reason is apparent complacency, accompanied by a sense of fatalism. During the lockdown period in the spring, the U.S. managed to "flatten the curve" after an initial surge of COVID-19 cases in March. But due to growing public weariness with strict protection measures, many states reopened their economies too early and many people began ignoring elementary precautions, such as wearing face masks. The number of COVID-19 cases has started to accelerate once again.
A second wave of outbreaks is feared for the winter months as colder weather reduces outdoor activities and many schools reopen, creating crowded conditions that help the spread of COVID-19. Many Americans may decide to hunker down once again, avoiding travel, entertainment venues, restaurants and stores. This could stall any economic recovery.
As it is, the U.S. economy has been on life support due to generous government spending and unemployment benefits in recent months. But many of these emergency measures are due to expire at the end of July. The Republicans and Democrats remain deadlocked in Congress about a new relief package, risking a cut in unemployment benefits, federal aid to state and local government aid, and job creation incentives. The U.S. could soon be staring into the abyss of a depression as financial support for many Americans disappears.
Many are hoping that the discovery of a vaccine will solve the COVID-19 problem. Moderna, a U.S. drugmaker, last week reported that a coronavirus vaccine it was developing had proved to be safe and effective in Phase 1 trials. But this is still a long way from fully developing, manufacturing and distributing a cure. It is uncertain whether this or another vaccine would provide more than limited immunity even if it works.
Given the fiasco of testing in the U.S. there are also concerns that the government would fail to effectively roll out a program to immunize the entire population. If vaccine hopes fall short, the likely alternative would be obtaining herd immunity over time, although this would result in a heavy death toll. In the meantime, the economy would continue to sputter.
Others are hoping that the election of Joe Biden in November to replace Donald Trump as president will bring in a more competent government to handle the situation. But there is a growing chance that the election in a polarized America will descend into chaos. Many Americans will vote by absentee ballot to reduce their risk of exposure to COVID-19 at polling stations. But President Trump has said absentee ballots are a vehicle for voter fraud despite the lack of evidence to back this claim. Unless he is decisively defeated, he is likely to claim the election was "rigged" and provoke unrest on the streets.
Given the importance of the U.S. as a major military ally and trading partner, Koreans need to watch closely what happens in the country in the coming months. Uncertainty in the U.S. raises a host of issues for Korea as it tries to navigate increased tensions between the U.S and China, and deals with Pyongyang.
John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.
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