Denuclearization efforts should continue
Last Wednesday, North Korea celebrated the 75th anniversary of the People's Army. During a nighttime parade in Pyongyang, the North demonstrated 10 solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles that have seen the reclusive totalitarian state nearly complete its nuclear weapons program.
However, foreign media paid more attention to a 10-year-old girl attending the event ― Kim Ju-ae, the daughter of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. It was her fifth appearance at an official function.
Keen debate and political analysis followed.
Some experts said these were signs that the North Korean leader had picked her as his successor.
They cited two reasons. The 39-year-old leader's health may not be in a good condition and Kim Jong-un himself was groomed as the successor by his father, Kim Jong-il, when he was only eight. At a banquet, the child was seated in the center with old military generals standing behind the first family so as to clearly highlight the nation's fourth hereditary succession of power at some point in the future.
Others claim that the North was trying to show its determination to continue its nuclear program by alluding to the leader of the next generation so as to guarantee its safety. Others pointed out that Pyongyang refers to creation of the Hwaseong-17 ICBM as the birth of a child. The North compared it to the U.S.' Apollo 11 rocket developed in the 1960s. Kim Ju-ae is a perfect prop for that reference.
Nevertheless, one thing is clear: The world must not allow the North to arm its rockets with nuclear warheads.
It was noteworthy that the North Korean leader did not deliver a speech during the parade. That could mean Kim had no more external messages to deliver concerning denuclearization negotiations. Additionally, he might have had no domestic-focused message, unable to praise military achievements when in fact, dozens of people reportedly starve to death daily, even in the large cities.
By most people's analysis, the goal of denuclearization is getting further away.
For nearly a decade, the U.S. has maintained a policy of "strategic patience" (or neglected it), encouraging, or enraging the North to expand and diversify its nuclear arsenal. China faces limitations when it comes to dissuading its communist ally from its military pursuits, especially regarding the global rivalry with America. That leaves only South Korea (of the four parties) with the task of rekindling the dying embers regarding a negotiated settlement to the nuclear crisis.
To be sure, it is becoming an increasingly daunting task. For the South, however, it is not a matter of possibility but of necessity. It must not leave the slightest chance of a nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula. Seoul must persuade Washington to resume efforts to denuclearize Pyongyang ― at least for three reasons. Firstly, the North's nuclear disarmament becomes more difficult if the situation remains the same or becomes aggravated. Secondly, such a situation could create a chasm even between allies. Thirdly, America's alienation of North Korea will push the latter more into China's arms.
Since his inauguration nine months ago, President Yoon Suk Yeol has been less than eager ― or at least that is how it appears ― to resume contact with North Korea. Commenting on Yoon's "audacious plan" toward the North, critics said it was neither audacious nor a plan. Yoon's tit-for-tat trading of aggressive words and actions with the North didn't help either.
Admittedly, Yoon took office when the situation around the Korean Peninsula was unfavorable for inter-Korean reconciliation. Pyongyang, disappointed by Washington's reversals and angered by Seoul's limitations, was set to speed up its nuclear program. However, if Yoon tries, there is still room for improvement, little by little.
A closer look at his "audacious plan" also finds some positive elements, such as its guarantee of the North's security and a gradual approach called the "three Ds" ― deter, dissuade and dialogue. Most of all, Yoon can move more boldly toward the North because he is a "conservative" leader free from ideological bias. Yoon can become a historic leader if only he could turn things around.
Yoon must tell his North Korean counterparts that they must leave the next generation a peaceful and prosperous peninsula.
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