Winning the March 8 convention to select the ruling People Power Party's (PPP's) new chairman is part of Rep. Ahn Cheol-soo's playbook to make his dream come true.
It's a contest he must win. Otherwise, his ambition to become Korea's next president will be in danger. Depending on political circumstances, his bid to become president may end up as unfinished business.
If Ahn wins the upcoming race, the entrepreneur-turned-politician will have a greater say in the selection of the PPP's candidates to run in the 2024 National Assembly elections. He can fill the list with candidates with whom he is politically aligned.
The more PPP candidates that win the parliamentary elections, the better for Ahn.
The ruling party's primary to select its presidential candidate boils down to a competition to win the hearts of party delegates. A candidate more popular among their party members has more chance to become a presidential candidate. Lawmakers and other PPP candidates who ran unsuccessfully in the parliamentary elections are eligible voters in the primary. Therefore, winning their hearts is a critical first step that can ensure Ahn comes closer to his bid to become a future president.
Recent polls find that he is in a tight race with his rival, Rep. Kim Gi-hyeon. In some surveys, the two leading candidates are competing within a margin of error, with some others showing Kim is slightly ahead of Ahn.
There is another highest-ranking politician who keenly follows news about the ruling party's convention politics. President Yoon Suk Yeol knows the significance of the March 8 convention and its implications for his presidency.
PPP's next leader is tasked with a daunting mission to guide the ruling party to secure a safe majority in the National Assembly in the 2024 parliamentary elections.
In the eyes of Yoon, the ideal candidate for the PPP's next chairman will be the one who can put the party's interest ― winning the 2024 National Assembly elections ― first, while putting aside his or her personal gain. The PPP's new chairman is facing calls to steer public opinion in favor of the ruling party and successfully rally support from the general public to cast their votes for ruling party candidates.
So, the president may think that a candidate who calculates personal gains or one preoccupied with personal ambitions is not a good fit to lead the ruling party.
Securing a safe majority in the National Assembly has become an urgent task for Yoon.
Since he took office on May 10 last year, the prosecutor-turned-president has been grappling with a parliamentary stalemate. His "iconic" campaign pledge of abolishing the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family, for example, has been in limbo. The reorganization of Cabinet ministries requires approval from the National Assembly. Currently, the parliament is controlled by the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK). The largest party has refused to cooperate with the ruling party.
Yoon started his presidency without a "honeymoon" with the opposition which usually continues for the first six months after a new president is sworn in. During this period, a sitting president will enjoy bipartisan support for his initiatives. But such a "grace period" did not happen.
During the past nine months since his inauguration, President Yoon has found it tough to push through his policy priorities.
His stated goal to put freedom and the rule of law in place will be at risk of becoming an empty slogan if the opposition-controlled parliament continues.
President Yoon and Rep. Ahn have a shared interest in the 2024 National Assembly elections. They both will be better off in case the ruling party wins. But it seems that they are not on the same page about the ruling party's next leader.
Among others, their interpretations of the requisite qualifications for the PPP's next leader are different.
It would be in the best interest of President Yoon if a "selfless" leader is elected and can lead the ruling party to a victory in the 2024 National Assembly elections with a comfortable majority. If this is done, the president can push his agenda items to make Korea great.
Recently, Yoon revealed publicly his discontent with Ahn.
Through his unnamed aide, Yoon accused Ahn of interfering in his management of state affairs with his self-serving campaign, calling the lawmaker "an enemy." Ahn's use of words such as the "Yoon-Ahn coalition" and "Yoon haek gwan" (President Yoon's close aides, in a negative sense) is known to have drawn the ire of the president as he feels it is insulting. Ahn backed down. He vowed he would not use such terms again.
The Yoon-Ahn quarrel, albeit indirect, came to an end with Ahn's quick concession.
But tensions between Yoon and Ahn, who were once political partners during the 2022 presidential election, remain unresolved and could escalate again, anytime.
Unlike President Yoon's hope for a devoted PPP leader, Rep. Ahn views it as a critical step to come closer to his ultimate goal to become Korea's next president.
It remains uncertain whether their different visions for the ruling party's next leadership are something that can be narrowed.