New strategy needed to avert nuclear nightmare
The Yoon Suk-yeol administration is weighing various measures to strengthen deterrence against ever-mounting nuclear threats from North Korea. Yet it is tricky to sort out viable options as there are risk factors to consider. What's certain is that South Korea needs a new strategy as the Kim Jong-un regime is going all out to develop and deploy tactical nuclear warheads that can devastate the South.
On Thursday, Yoon said he is looking carefully at "various possibilities" on how to strengthen U.S. extended deterrence against the nuclear-armed North. He declined to give further details, saying it is difficult to mention specific options given the sensitive nature of security-related matters. However, it is certain that Seoul is actively discussing the issue with Washington.
There are some possible options, including the redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons, which were withdrawn from the South in 1991. Some hardline lawmakers of the ruling People Power Party (PPP) are calling for South Korea's own nuclear armament, floating the idea of "a nuke for a nuke." However, it is unfeasible for the country to push for a nuclear weapons program as it goes against the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and will trigger a domino effect in East Asia.
The redeployment of U.S. tactical nukes is not without problems either. Washington appears reluctant to accept this option as it could be used to justify the North's nuclear program and intensify a nuclear showdown in the region. Thus it is necessary to find a viable solution for coping with the North's nuclear blackmail more effectively.
Some feasible options could include deployment of U.S. strategic assets such as nuclear-powered aircraft carriers or nuclear submarines to waters around the Korean Peninsula on a rotational basis around the clock. Such a measure will significantly enhance U.S. extended deterrence against the North's nuclear threats, while sticking to the principle of a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula. Seoul and Washington are reportedly discussing this option, which is seen as a method for the U.S. to "share" its nuclear arms with its Asian ally.
There are growing calls for the two allies to overhaul their coordinated strategy that has so far focused on how to prod the North to denuclearize. Now the security situation on the peninsula has changed greatly as Kim has vowed not to give up his nuclear arsenal and refused to return to dialogue.
The North's nuclear menace has become an increasingly real threat to the South. For the past two weeks, Pyongyang conducted seven rounds of missile launches, including short- and intermediate-range missiles. It reportedly carried out tactical nuclear weapons drills under the guidance of Kim. On Wednesday, the North fired two long-range strategic cruise missiles that flew 2,000 kilometers to hit a target in the West Sea.
In this situation, the Yoon administration should work more closely with the Biden administration to find a fundamental solution to the North's growing security threats. Most of all, it is imperative to prevent the Kim regime from conducting its seventh nuclear test. It will be far more difficult ― arguably impossible ― for the allies to realize their shared goal of denuclearizing the North, once Pyongyang completes the final stage of its nuclear program.
The Yoon Suk-yeol administration is weighing various measures to strengthen deterrence against ever-mounting nuclear threats from North Korea. Yet it is tricky to sort out viable options as there are risk factors to consider. What's certain is that South Korea needs a new strategy as the Kim Jong-un regime is going all out to develop and deploy tactical nuclear warheads that can devastate the South.
On Thursday, Yoon said he is looking carefully at "various possibilities" on how to strengthen U.S. extended deterrence against the nuclear-armed North. He declined to give further details, saying it is difficult to mention specific options given the sensitive nature of security-related matters. However, it is certain that Seoul is actively discussing the issue with Washington.
There are some possible options, including the redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons, which were withdrawn from the South in 1991. Some hardline lawmakers of the ruling People Power Party (PPP) are calling for South Korea's own nuclear armament, floating the idea of "a nuke for a nuke." However, it is unfeasible for the country to push for a nuclear weapons program as it goes against the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and will trigger a domino effect in East Asia.
The redeployment of U.S. tactical nukes is not without problems either. Washington appears reluctant to accept this option as it could be used to justify the North's nuclear program and intensify a nuclear showdown in the region. Thus it is necessary to find a viable solution for coping with the North's nuclear blackmail more effectively.
Some feasible options could include deployment of U.S. strategic assets such as nuclear-powered aircraft carriers or nuclear submarines to waters around the Korean Peninsula on a rotational basis around the clock. Such a measure will significantly enhance U.S. extended deterrence against the North's nuclear threats, while sticking to the principle of a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula. Seoul and Washington are reportedly discussing this option, which is seen as a method for the U.S. to "share" its nuclear arms with its Asian ally.
There are growing calls for the two allies to overhaul their coordinated strategy that has so far focused on how to prod the North to denuclearize. Now the security situation on the peninsula has changed greatly as Kim has vowed not to give up his nuclear arsenal and refused to return to dialogue.
The North's nuclear menace has become an increasingly real threat to the South. For the past two weeks, Pyongyang conducted seven rounds of missile launches, including short- and intermediate-range missiles. It reportedly carried out tactical nuclear weapons drills under the guidance of Kim. On Wednesday, the North fired two long-range strategic cruise missiles that flew 2,000 kilometers to hit a target in the West Sea.
In this situation, the Yoon administration should work more closely with the Biden administration to find a fundamental solution to the North's growing security threats. Most of all, it is imperative to prevent the Kim regime from conducting its seventh nuclear test. It will be far more difficult ― arguably impossible ― for the allies to realize their shared goal of denuclearizing the North, once Pyongyang completes the final stage of its nuclear program.
