The Korea Times
amn_close.png
amn_bl.png
National
  • Politics
  • Foreign Affairs
  • Multicultural Community
  • Defense
  • Environment & Animals
  • Law & Crime
  • Society
  • Health & Science
amn_bl.png
Business
  • Tech
  • Bio
  • Companies
amn_bl.png
Finance
  • Companies
  • Economy
  • Markets
  • Cryptocurrency
amn_bl.png
Opinion
  • Editorial
  • Columns
  • Thoughts of the Times
  • Cartoon
  • Today in History
  • Blogs
  • Tribune Service
  • Blondie & Garfield
  • Letter to President
  • Letter to the Editor
amn_bl.png
Lifestyle
  • Travel & Food
  • Trends
  • People & Events
  • Books
  • Around Town
  • Fortune Telling
amn_bl.png
Entertainment & Arts
  • K-pop
  • Films
  • Shows & Dramas
  • Music
  • Theater & Others
amn_bl.png
Sports
amn_bl.png
World
  • SCMP
  • Asia
amn_bl.png
Video
  • Korean Storytellers
  • POPKORN
  • Culture
  • People
  • News
amn_bl.png
Photos
  • Photo News
  • Darkroom
amn_NK.png amn_DR.png amn_LK.png amn_LE.png
  • bt_fb_on_2022.svgbt_fb_over_2022.svg
  • bt_twitter_on_2022.svgbt_twitter_over_2022.svg
  • bt_youtube_on_2022.svgbt_youtube_over_2022.svg
  • bt_instagram_on_2022.svgbt_instagram_over_2022.svg
The Korea Times
amn_close.png
amn_bl.png
National
  • Politics
  • Foreign Affairs
  • Multicultural Community
  • Defense
  • Environment & Animals
  • Law & Crime
  • Society
  • Health & Science
amn_bl.png
Business
  • Tech
  • Bio
  • Companies
amn_bl.png
Finance
  • Companies
  • Economy
  • Markets
  • Cryptocurrency
amn_bl.png
Opinion
  • Editorial
  • Columns
  • Thoughts of the Times
  • Cartoon
  • Today in History
  • Blogs
  • Tribune Service
  • Blondie & Garfield
  • Letter to President
  • Letter to the Editor
amn_bl.png
Lifestyle
  • Travel & Food
  • Trends
  • People & Events
  • Books
  • Around Town
  • Fortune Telling
amn_bl.png
Entertainment & Arts
  • K-pop
  • Films
  • Shows & Dramas
  • Music
  • Theater & Others
amn_bl.png
Sports
amn_bl.png
World
  • SCMP
  • Asia
amn_bl.png
Video
  • Korean Storytellers
  • POPKORN
  • Culture
  • People
  • News
amn_bl.png
Photos
  • Photo News
  • Darkroom
amn_NK.png amn_DR.png amn_LK.png amn_LE.png
  • bt_fb_on_2022.svgbt_fb_over_2022.svg
  • bt_twitter_on_2022.svgbt_twitter_over_2022.svg
  • bt_youtube_on_2022.svgbt_youtube_over_2022.svg
  • bt_instagram_on_2022.svgbt_instagram_over_2022.svg
  • Login
  • Register
  • Login
  • Register
  • The Korea Times
  • search
  • all menu
  • Login
  • Subscribe
  • Photos
  • Video
  • World
  • Sports
  • Opinion
  • Entertainment & Art
  • Lifestyle
  • Finance
  • Business
  • National
  • North Korea
  • 1

    Disgraced ex-minister's daughter says she feels proud, qualified as a doctor

  • 3

    Coupang reveals Asia's largest fulfillment center in Daegu

  • 5

    Ex-gov't employee summarily indicted for alleged attempt to sell Jungkook's lost hat

  • 7

    Tiger endures 3 years of solitary confinement in closed zoo

  • 9

    Netflix survival show 'Physical 100' attracts viewers with sweat, muscle and human story

  • 11

    Rescuers race against time as Turkey-Syria quake death toll passes 5,000

  • 13

    Ex-justice minister, daughter blamed for unrepentant attitude over academic fraud

  • 15

    INTERVIEW'Korea, US can create synergy in space industry': NASA ambassador

  • 17

    Seoul narrows in on new slogan

  • 19

    Turkey-Syria quake toll tops 11,000 as rescuers battle cold

  • 2

    Singer Lee Seung-gi to marry actor Lee Da-in in April

  • 4

    SM in internal feud over founder's exit from producing

  • 6

    'Celebrity forests' emerge as new K-pop trend in Seoul

  • 8

    Seoul city zeroes in on foreign residents' unpaid taxes

  • 10

    Korean Peninsula may face fallout from balloon saga

  • 12

    Peak Time: Survival show for lesser-known K-pop boy bands to hit air

  • 14

    SM founder Lee Soo-man returns home, in hospital to treat arm fracture

  • 16

    Apple confirms launch of Apple Pay in Korea

  • 18

    Chainsaw Fest set to rip apart Club SHARP

  • 20

    Korea to allow currency trading by offshore firms, extend market hours

Close scrollclosebutton

Close for 24 hours

Open
  • The Korea Times
  • search
  • all menu
  • Login
  • Subscribe
  • Photos
  • Video
  • World
  • Sports
  • Opinion
  • Entertainment & Art
  • Lifestyle
  • Finance
  • Business
  • National
  • North Korea
Opinion
  • Editorial
  • Columns
  • Thoughts of the Times
  • Cartoon
  • Today in History
  • Blogs
  • Tribune Service
  • Blondie & Garfield
  • Letter to President
  • Letter to the Editor
Thu, February 9, 2023 | 11:12
Times Forum
The baby blues
Posted : 2017-07-25 17:48
Updated : 2017-07-25 17:48
Print PreviewPrint Preview
Font Size UpFont Size Up
Font Size DownFont Size Down
  • facebook
  • twitter
  • kakaolink
  • whatsapp
  • reddit
  • mailto
  • link
By Paul Yip

Is Hong Kong doomed to be a society of low birth rates and eventually declining population? Austrian demographer Wolfgang Lutz has put forward the hypothesis of a "low fertility trap" that illustrates the challenges we face. When fertility rates fall below a certain threshold, he says, it could be trapped at a level of around 1.2 children per woman, far below the replacement level of 2.1. This is not just due to the demographic transition of fewer marriages, but also the self-reinforcing changes in social attitudes towards family formation.

It is a trap because of the involuntary nature of such a possibly irreversible demographic regime change. As more people choose to have fewer children, young people growing up will begin to accept small family size as the norm. This in turn affects their future aspirations to have children.

In Hong Kong, surveys show that the ideal family size is 1.6 children (that is, the number of children families want to have), while the total fertility rate is around 1.2 (the children they actually have). If the city's youth aspire to have even fewer children, ideal family size will fall further, and so will the fertility rate.

All high-income Asian economies, including South Korea, Japan, Singapore and Taiwan, have a total fertility rate of about 1.2, lower than the average of 1.5 in the West, even though their governments have spent considerable resources in ­an attempt to raise fertility rates.

For example, the Korean government provides universal free childcare services to parents, and spent more than 61 trillion won (HK$424 billion) from 2011-2015, with little impact on improving women's labor participation rate and fertility rate. It is going to spend another 108.4 trillion won from 2016-2020. The universal childcare service welcomes these initiatives as mitigating the pressure of raising families, but there is still little impact in raising fertility rates.

Taiwan has provided much support to families with more children, in the hope of reversing the fertility decline. Likewise, the Singaporean government has gone all out to promote marriage and fertility by offering affordable housing loans and other incentives.

Low fertility rates in these countries are not just due to financial considerations but some very practical issues, such as long working hours and gender inequality, such as the unequal burden on women of childrearing and housework. The unstable employment situation, expensive housing and high educational expenses are real barriers to bigger families.

In Singapore and South Korea, population policy committees are housed in the prime minister's and president's office, respectively, to reflect strong government commitment. Singapore treats its population policy as a priority in the national policy agenda. With a population about 2 million short of Hong Kong's, and 30 per cent non-permanent residents, it is a matter of survival for Singapore to maintain a sizeable, quality population.

About 28.4 per cent of respondents [to a Hong Kong survey] reported their ideal number of children was zero

Compared with other advanced Asian economies – Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan – Hong Kong has the lowest average ideal family size, of 1.6 children.

In Japan and Korea, the ideal is 2.4 and 2.2 children, respectively. Thus, even amid ultra-low fertility, the two-child norm is still very strong these countries, but appears to be eroding in Hong Kong.

In the latest survey by the Family Planning Association, about 28.4 per cent of respondents reported that their ideal number of children was zero, reflecting that nowadays in Hong Kong, a certain proportion of couples voluntarily choose to be child-free and live the DINK (double income, no kids) lifestyle. About 40.4 per cent reported that their ideal parity was one, while only 29.4 per cent reported that their ideal parity was two.

So aspiration for family formation among our young people is not high, and the fertility intention is even lower. With expensive housing and job instability, Hong Kong has all the elements to remain in this low fertility trap for a long time.

On the other hand, we enjoy one of the longest life expectancies in the world. With the workforce ­expected to shrink from 2018, we do need to plan ahead to avert crisis.

Improving productivity and ­relying less on labor-intensive work should be the top priority. The relatively low labor costs have not provided the incentive for investing in technology to ­improve the working conditions for the three "D" work categories, namely, difficult, dirty and dangerous work. Further, replacement migration is not only an option but a real necessity, to maintain the quality of service and timeliness of completion of work.

China's first lady Peng Liyuan visits a kindergarten in Kowloon Tong during her visit to Hong Kong for the SAR's 20th anniversary celebrations. Photo: Handout

Given the challenges, Hong Kong's fertility rate of about 1.2 is unlikely to see much ­improvement anytime soon. The average duration between marriage and the first birth is also getting longer, to about three years now. Apparently, the gap between the ideal and reality is also growing larger.

There are too many barriers for women in Hong Kong to achieve the ideal family size, not least the financial burden of high housing prices and costs of a quality education.

If we can't see an end to the low fertility trap, perhaps we need to adjust our mindset for living with a low-fertility society, and improve on education, skills and health to offset the population size deficit.

By making Hong Kong an attractive place, we still can attract the right people with the right skills to maintain the city's sustainable development.


Paul Yip is chair professor in the Department of Social Work and Social Administration at the University of Hong Kong. Copyright belongs to the South China Morning Post.


 
Top 10 Stories
1Korean Peninsula may face fallout from balloon saga Korean Peninsula may face fallout from balloon saga
2[PHOTOS] Turkey-Syria earthquake PHOTOSTurkey-Syria earthquake
3Daughter-centered photos, title of honor reinforce speculation over North Korea succession Daughter-centered photos, title of honor reinforce speculation over North Korea succession
4[INTERVIEW] 'Growth slowdown can accelerate depletion of retirement pension fund' INTERVIEW'Growth slowdown can accelerate depletion of retirement pension fund'
5SM's management dispute to benefit KakaoSM's management dispute to benefit Kakao
6National Assembly votes to impeach interior minister for Itaewon tragedy National Assembly votes to impeach interior minister for Itaewon tragedy
7SM6 Feel attracts customers with popular options, low price SM6 Feel attracts customers with popular options, low price
8Philip Morris seeks to surpass KT&G in e-cigarette market Philip Morris seeks to surpass KT&G in e-cigarette market
9[INTERVIEW] Veteran US photographer gives environment 'visual voice' to chronicle climate change INTERVIEWVeteran US photographer gives environment 'visual voice' to chronicle climate change
10Korean companies move to support victims in earthquake-hit Turkey, Syria Korean companies move to support victims in earthquake-hit Turkey, Syria
Top 5 Entertainment News
1Decoding success factors of NewJeans: How is it different? Decoding success factors of NewJeans: How is it different?
2SM in internal feud over founder's exit from producing SM in internal feud over founder's exit from producing
3The Boyz member Hyunjae apologizes for wearing hat with Rising Sun flag design The Boyz member Hyunjae apologizes for wearing hat with Rising Sun flag design
4Peak Time: Survival show for lesser-known K-pop boy bands to hit air Peak Time: Survival show for lesser-known K-pop boy bands to hit air
5K-pop stars and dating K-pop stars and dating
DARKROOM
  • [PHOTOS] Turkey-Syria earthquake

    [PHOTOS] Turkey-Syria earthquake

  • Nepal plane crash

    Nepal plane crash

  • Brazil capital uprising

    Brazil capital uprising

  • Happy New Year 2023

    Happy New Year 2023

  • World Cup 2022 Final - Argentina vs France

    World Cup 2022 Final - Argentina vs France

CEO & Publisher : Oh Young-jin
Digital News Email : webmaster@koreatimes.co.kr
Tel : 02-724-2114
Online newspaper registration No : 서울,아52844
Date of registration : 2020.02.05
Masthead : The Korea Times
Copyright © koreatimes.co.kr. All rights reserved.
  • About Us
  • Introduction
  • History
  • Contact Us
  • Products & Services
  • Subscribe
  • E-paper
  • RSS Service
  • Content Sales
  • Site Map
  • Policy
  • Code of Ethics
  • Ombudsman
  • Privacy Statement
  • Terms of Service
  • Copyright Policy
  • Family Site
  • Hankook Ilbo
  • Dongwha Group