Will anything change? Nope

By Jason Lim

The last seven months in South Korean politics have surely been a whirlwind, concluding with the election of the liberal candidate, Moon Jae-in, as President. According to the breathless coverage from the international media, South Korea is now the epitome of liberal democracy and a model for all would-be democratic activists to follow, including the progressives in America who would undoubtedly like to see the U.S. follow a similar path to political change.

Not likely to happen, but hope springs eternal.

And it certainly does in South Korea this week, basking in the glow of a candlelit revolution well won. There is a palpable sense of freshness, rejuvenation and hope in the air. Moon has started off on the right foot, promising transparency and communication as his administration's core values. He has so far walked the walk, announcing his initial inner circle appointments in a personable, open and frank manner, which was a great contrast to the formal, stiff and opaque way the prior administration of Park Geun-hye went about its business.

But as the warm afterglow of the candlelit rallies darkens and the honeymoon ends, what will really have changed in Korea? As some declare, backed more with fervent dreams rather than any facts, has the old way of doing business in Korea Inc. changed in a fundamental way? Will the old cadre of elites and the nepotistic culture of corruption that drove the governance paradigm of South Korea magically give way to transparency, social justice, economic equality and other noble goals the candlelit crowd supported?

Not likely. Change is hard. Fundamental cultural change is even harder. The fight is just beginning, and guess what, the old guard still has more levers of powers than Moon ever will.

A quick look at a JoongAng Daily election results map is actually very enlightening. While Moon won overwhelmingly over his runner-up, conservative opponent Hong Joon-pyo, in terms of the number of votes ― with the largest margin of victory in Korea's presidential election history ― a number of small to mid-sized municipalities split fairly evenly down the middle between Moon and Hong.

The map looks strangely like the Blue/Red Yin Yang circle of the South Korean flag; the left side of the map is all blue (Moon) while the right side of the map is mostly red (Hong). The population density of the municipalities that Moon won is higher, leading to more votes; however, Hong also won an almost equal number of municipalities.
This tells me South Korea is still as divided as ever along the traditional demarcation lines of geography, generations and ideology. The red communist scare, otherwise known as the "northern wind" in Korea's political parlance, still lurks strongly just beneath the surface. Even in Seongju County whose residents are protesting the placement of the THAAD system in their backyard, Hong won 56 percent of the vote compared to Moon's 18 percent. Strange? Yes. Does it make sense? Yes, in Korea.

Further, the conglomerates that rule the day in the South Korean economy still have great wealth and influence. While Samsung was recently tainted in the Choi Soon-sil scandal and its de facto head might even be sentenced to jail, it's all a part of doing business. Samsung, along with other chaebols, will have an outsized voice in how Korea Inc. operates for the foreseeable future. And the powerful conservative media outlets that were obsessed in finding fault with former President Roh Moo-hyun (for whom Moon served as the chief of staff) are still powerful and ready to defend their turf against liberal encroachment.

At least Roh had the national assembly stacked in his favor. Moon's Democratic Party of Korea only commands 120 seats, which means he would have to find common ground with the conservative Liberty Korea Party that holds 94 seats in order to pass any meaningful legislation that goes against the status quo. In fact, there is very little incentive for the Liberty Korea Party to work with Moon at this point to help him win any victories ― they would be doing everything they can to trip up his agenda for their own political advantage that can sweep them back in power in the next general election in 2018. In other words, politics as usual by either side.

This situation somehow reminds me of the first time Barack Obama was elected as president of the U.S. There was a fresh wave of youthful hope by the liberals that everything would change from now on: that America (and even the world) would enter into some type of idealistic era where deep-seated divisions would be magically overcome.
It didn't happen then in America. It won't happen today in Korea.

In his inauguration speech, Moon spoke eloquently of his desire to be President of all Koreans, even those who didn't vote for him: "Starting today, I will act as the President of all citizens. Those who did not support me are still my citizens and will be served as well."

The bigger question is: will they let him?

Jason Lim is a Washington, D.C.-based expert on innovation, leadership and organizational culture. He has been writing for The Korea Times since 2006. Reach him at jasonlim@msn.com, facebook. com/jasonlimkoreatimes or @jasonlim2012.