By Alex Gratzek
Early last month, President Trump shocked his advisers, North Korea, South Korea and the rest of the world by accepting an invitation to meet Kim Jung-un.
The sudden acceptance was such that the South Korean envoy had to phone President Moon to secure his blessing to make an announcement at the White House. At the time, the North Korean media failed to mention anything related to this.
This is not in the best interests of any parties involved and should be postponed until a later date. The sudden acceptance is a hallmark of Trump's style, an impetuous audacious move that puts himself at the center of attention. The ability to be the first president in office to meet the leader of North Korea may have proven irresistible to Trump. This style may work in the world of real estate, but in the arena of global diplomacy it could prove disastrous.
Meetings between heads of state are usually the culmination of communication that has been carried out over long periods _ by having contacts at lower levels progress on issues, while a strong relationship is developed. Eventually this allows for the heads of state to meet for a grand finale with no unforeseen surprises.
If lower level officials are unable to work together, then the respective leaders will not meet, no face is lost, and whatever issues that remain unresolved are not thrust into the limelight as an inscrutable problem.
Trump's sudden announcement has turned this on its head. With little time for any meaningful buildup between lower officials prior to any meeting between the two, the chance of a comprehensive fruitful meeting seems small.
What chance there is for success is lessened by the recent addition of John Bolton and Mike Pompeo to the Trump administration. Both are hawks who advocate pre-emptive military strikes against foes and the tearing-up of the Iranian nuclear deal. This hostility to the Iranian deal serves to undermine American sincerity in any negotiations concerning the same issue with North Korea.
If they do meet, it is certainly possible a deal could be struck; but only to see Trump later backtrack on it. Trump has been known to make agreements without the input of his advisers, and if a deal were agreed to, which in hindsight Trump believes to be too beneficial to North Korea, he could very well dismiss it.
Domestically, Trump has "agreed" to various deals and proposals only to renege shortly thereafter. This is a behavior that can't be tolerated when dealing with foreign nations on such a sensitive issue.
With the chance of a deal already low, and Trump surrounded by hawks, it could prove a tragedy. If negotiations were to fail, Trump would not be able to kick the issue down the road any further or to lower level subordinates. His ego and image would not allow it _ after all he has built himself up as a hard negotiator and a tough guy. He would have lost face and would know only one way to regain it.
Those around him such as Bolton and Pompeo would be arguing for a pre-emptive strike. They would hold that a shot was made at diplomacy; it didn't work so that leaves only two options _ a limited strike or a full blown war. The fact that North Korea has recently brought a new reactor online would be used as evidence that they didn't even enter the negotiations in good faith.
Furthermore, they would press for either option as having been a better one than yesterday, and a better option today than in the future, when North Korea will have further improved its missile and nuclear technology.
So far, progress has been choreographed by President Moon Jae-in. He needs to stay in the driver's seat in order to prod negotiations along at a slower, more reasonable pace. He played Trump like a fiddle in tickling his ego in giving him "credit" for creating the conditions for establishing contact with North Korea.
Trump should not be allowed to meet Kim at all if no deal seems possible. If they meet and there is no breakthrough, Trump would not be able to kick the can down the road anymore. A meeting should only be planned when the semblance of a deal has been reached.
Then, Trump can be brought in for a photo op for the ceremonial "completion" of negotiations and take credit. The world will know where the real credit for any deal will lie. The meeting of the two in any other circumstances should not be allowed as the potential fallout is too high.
Alex Gratzek is an American who has lived, studied and worked in South Korea. Contact him at ajgratzek@gmail.com. The opinions expressed in the above article are the author's own and do not reflect the editorial direction of The Korea Times.
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The sudden acceptance was such that the South Korean envoy had to phone President Moon to secure his blessing to make an announcement at the White House. At the time, the North Korean media failed to mention anything related to this.
This is not in the best interests of any parties involved and should be postponed until a later date. The sudden acceptance is a hallmark of Trump's style, an impetuous audacious move that puts himself at the center of attention. The ability to be the first president in office to meet the leader of North Korea may have proven irresistible to Trump. This style may work in the world of real estate, but in the arena of global diplomacy it could prove disastrous.
Meetings between heads of state are usually the culmination of communication that has been carried out over long periods _ by having contacts at lower levels progress on issues, while a strong relationship is developed. Eventually this allows for the heads of state to meet for a grand finale with no unforeseen surprises.
If lower level officials are unable to work together, then the respective leaders will not meet, no face is lost, and whatever issues that remain unresolved are not thrust into the limelight as an inscrutable problem.
Trump's sudden announcement has turned this on its head. With little time for any meaningful buildup between lower officials prior to any meeting between the two, the chance of a comprehensive fruitful meeting seems small.
What chance there is for success is lessened by the recent addition of John Bolton and Mike Pompeo to the Trump administration. Both are hawks who advocate pre-emptive military strikes against foes and the tearing-up of the Iranian nuclear deal. This hostility to the Iranian deal serves to undermine American sincerity in any negotiations concerning the same issue with North Korea.
If they do meet, it is certainly possible a deal could be struck; but only to see Trump later backtrack on it. Trump has been known to make agreements without the input of his advisers, and if a deal were agreed to, which in hindsight Trump believes to be too beneficial to North Korea, he could very well dismiss it.
Domestically, Trump has "agreed" to various deals and proposals only to renege shortly thereafter. This is a behavior that can't be tolerated when dealing with foreign nations on such a sensitive issue.
With the chance of a deal already low, and Trump surrounded by hawks, it could prove a tragedy. If negotiations were to fail, Trump would not be able to kick the issue down the road any further or to lower level subordinates. His ego and image would not allow it _ after all he has built himself up as a hard negotiator and a tough guy. He would have lost face and would know only one way to regain it.
Those around him such as Bolton and Pompeo would be arguing for a pre-emptive strike. They would hold that a shot was made at diplomacy; it didn't work so that leaves only two options _ a limited strike or a full blown war. The fact that North Korea has recently brought a new reactor online would be used as evidence that they didn't even enter the negotiations in good faith.
Furthermore, they would press for either option as having been a better one than yesterday, and a better option today than in the future, when North Korea will have further improved its missile and nuclear technology.
So far, progress has been choreographed by President Moon Jae-in. He needs to stay in the driver's seat in order to prod negotiations along at a slower, more reasonable pace. He played Trump like a fiddle in tickling his ego in giving him "credit" for creating the conditions for establishing contact with North Korea.
Trump should not be allowed to meet Kim at all if no deal seems possible. If they meet and there is no breakthrough, Trump would not be able to kick the can down the road anymore. A meeting should only be planned when the semblance of a deal has been reached.
Then, Trump can be brought in for a photo op for the ceremonial "completion" of negotiations and take credit. The world will know where the real credit for any deal will lie. The meeting of the two in any other circumstances should not be allowed as the potential fallout is too high.
Alex Gratzek is an American who has lived, studied and worked in South Korea. Contact him at ajgratzek@gmail.com. The opinions expressed in the above article are the author's own and do not reflect the editorial direction of The Korea Times.
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