Looking east, beyond Ukraine

By John J. Metzler

As Ukraine's conflict rolls on, most countries remain fixated on the deadly clash between the Russian invaders and heroically spirited Ukrainian defenders. This war in Europe has reawakened political and strategic attention along the old East-West axis.

Yet thousands of miles beyond the widening tragedy in Ukraine, a new threat has reemerged on the Korean Peninsula with a provocative long range missile test by communist North Korea. I'm speaking of course about dictator Kim Jong-un's theatrically staged and successful launch of a long range Hwasong-17 ICBM missile, which is estimated to be capable of hitting the United States mainland.

Not to be overshadowed by the Ukraine war, or possibly to divert attention away from it, the North Korean government is continuing its old strategy. This year alone, the quaintly titled Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has fired off short, medium and long range missiles on eight different dates. The reactions beyond East Asia have been characterized mostly by ambivalence.

The current test was swiftly condemned by the United States, Japan and South Korea. Indeed South Korea's outgoing President Moon Jae-in said the firing violated Pyongyang's prior self-imposed ICBM moratorium, adding that the situation is "urgent and serious."

Recall that a mere five years ago the U.S. and East Asia stood on the brink of war; North Korea's leader had threatened to nuke Japan, Guam, Hawaii and even the U.S. mainland. U.S. former President Donald Trump sternly warned North Korea that any such actions would bring immediate "fire and fury" upon Kim's regime.

The world watched with trepidation but Kim Jong-un soon blinked. Before long, then-President Trump held unprecedented diplomatic negotiations to defuse North Korea's reckless future antics. The June 2018 Singapore Summit, held between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un, with the strong support of South Korea's President Moon, brought an unexpected lull to the nuclear crisis.

The negotiations in Singapore stopped the clock with the moratorium on North Korea's missile testing but it did not totally solve the wider North Korean nuclear crisis.

Since 2018, the DPRK had not fired any long range missiles ― until now.

"This year alone, 13 ballistic missiles have been launched across 10 sets of tests, each a violation of Security Council resolutions. We are deeply concerned by the increased tempo of these launches and the growing capability they represent," British U.N. Ambassador Barbara Woodward told the Security Council.

Given the escalating situation, for the first time since 2017, the U.N. Security Council met to discuss the DPRK's widening missile proliferation and testing. U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield warned delegates, "It's not a regional issue. It's an issue for all of us. The DPRK's pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and its ballistic missile delivery systems poses a threat to every member of the global community."

So, amid multiple global conflicts and wars, is the U.N. returning again to the North Korea crisis? Already Kim's regime is heavily sanctioned economically and isolated politically.

Yet realistically, is the current showdown with the Pyongyang regime political coincidence or possibly in political connivance with North Korea's allies, China and Russia? In other words, is there any direct coordination between Beijing and Moscow to divert attention from Russia's military stalemate in Ukraine?

Viewed in the wider context, Harry Kazianis, the director of Korean Studies at the Center for the National Interest in Washington, stated somberly, "North Korea's testing of an ICBM was an event that never had to happen." He added, "Had the Biden Administration decided to make the North Korea issue a priority, and not ignored the Kim regime's build-up of nuclear weapons technology that can kill millions of people in minutes, at least some measure of progress could have been made."

It seems that the North Korea portfolio was put on the back burner by the incoming Biden team.

Seoul's The Korea Times stated in an editorial March 25, "North Korea seems to have tried to make the most of the unstable international security situation following Russia's sweeping invasion of Ukraine." The crisis has reemerged while the U.S. is focused on the Ukraine war.

There are many moving political parts here; the Biden team's relative indifference to Korea has suddenly been jolted, South Korea's new president-elect, Yoon Suk-yeol, will soon take office with his promise to be tougher on the Pyongyang regime, and of course, North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un, who craves the diplomatic spotlight. Equally, there are China and Russia, which see the strategic Korean Peninsula as a nexus of their own geopolitical interests in East Asia.

Despite the Ukraine crisis, events in East Asia have reasserted themselves.

John J. Metzler (jjmcolumn@earthlink.net) is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He is the author of "Divided Dynamism ― The Diplomacy of Separated Nations: Germany, Korea, China."