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Will the U.S.-DPRK dialogue, which has remained dormant since the Hanoi summit in February 2019, resume with the launch of the Biden administration?
At the eighth party congress in January, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un revealed his stance on the issue. While he left the door open for potential dialogue, it was conditioned upon "the withdrawal of the U.S. hostile policy toward North Korea." At the same time, he assigned North Korea's military to "develop tactical nuclear weapons, improve the accuracy of ICBMs, and accelerate the development of hypersonic gliding flight warheads, nuclear submarines and SLBMs" or submarine-launched ballistic missiles.
The Biden administration has yet to come up with a specific North Korea policy. What Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at his confirmation hearing on Jan. 19 remains all that is known. Blinken, in close consultations with America's allies, is expected to review the entire approach toward North Korea to see what options there are, what would be effective in increasing pressure on North Korea to come back to the negotiating table, and what other diplomatic initiatives are available. It was a statement of principle that everything would be reviewed from top to bottom.
However, it is advisable for the Biden administration to outline a North Korea policy sooner rather than later. If left unattended, North Korea will be tempted to create a crisis with a new missile or nuclear test. If that happens, it will complicate US plans to immediately deal with critical issues such as China and climate change.
Secretary Blinken mentioned that additional sanctions could be used. However, the fact of the matter is, one of the most stringent sanctions regimes has been imposed against North Korea since 2016-17 and remains intact. If anything, North Korea's situation has been compounded by the outbreak of COVID-19, which has forced Pyongyang to close its borders completely. As a result, in 2020, trade with China, which used to account for 90 percent of North Korea's foreign trade, declined by 81 percent down to $540 million. Given how strained the country already is, it will not be easy to come up with new sanctions that will move the needle.
However, should the U.S. also consider diplomatic incentives that Blinken previously raised in his testimony, one of the most effective ways to sway North Korea could be renewing its commitment to the 2018 U.S.-North Korea Joint Statement. This may sound somewhat out of sync in light of the widespread criticism the statement received from the U.S. foreign policy community. However, it is worth noting that the statement was an agreement reached at the highest level.
The Rodong Shinmun, the official newspaper of the Worker's Party of Korea, praised the Statement, saying that the supreme leader Kim Jong-un "made sure that the joint declaration that assured the establishment of new DPRK-U.S. relations was adopted." By simply renewing the commitment from its end, the U.S. could press North Korea to keep its promise to refrain from nuclear or long-range missile tests, while freeing up time to develop a roadmap for the future.
The value of the statement is more symbolic than substantive. What it does is to specify three goals in principle: normalization of bilateral relations, peacebuilding, and denuclearization. Specifics were to be discussed in subsequent negotiations. South Korea will certainly support this initiative.
The U.S. is facing two proliferation issues at the same time, one with North Korea at the Eastern end of Asia and another with Iran at the Western end. Although President Biden pledged to return to the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif stipulated that in order to return to the agreement, the U.S. should first lift all sanctions against Iran that were imposed by the Trump administration.
Furthermore, in February, Iran's intelligence chief warned that if the U.S. does not lift the sanctions, Iran would rescind its pledge to forego nuclear weapons. Kim Jong-un has made similar requests to the U.S.
In his 2018 New York Times article, Secretary Blinken wrote that the Iran nuclear deal could serve as the best model for a deal with North Korea. The beauty of the Iran deal is its flexibility which accepted some degree of uncertainty in the future in exchange for the best option within practical reach. I hope the Biden administration tackles the North Korean issue with the same flexibility and determination.
During his visit to the Defense Department last month, President Biden promised to "bring a responsible end to wars that have dragged on for so long." It is likely that he had the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan in mind. However, it would not be surprising to find out that he was also remembering a war which started 70 years ago and is still going on in the Korean peninsula.
Cho Byung-jae (bjcho81@gmail.com) is the secretary-general of the International Conference of Asian Political Parties (ICAPP) and also a visiting professor emeritus at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies of the Kyungnam University. Cho was a career diplomat and his last position at the Foreign Ministry was the chancellor of the Korean National Diplomatic Academy.
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