By John Burton
"North Korea as we know it is over. Whether it comes apart in the next few weeks or over several months, the regime will not be able to hold together after the untimely death of its leader, Kim Jong-il."
That was the bold prediction of Victor Cha, a top North Korean expert in Washington, D.C., writing in the New York Times in December 2011. With Kim Jong-un now celebrating his 10th anniversary in power as dictator, Cha's comment is a reminder that forecasting what will happen in North Korea often amounts to a fool's errand.
Predictions of North Korea's collapse have become routine over the last 30 years. When I was the Financial Times correspondent in Seoul in the 1990s, I remember being told by my editors to prepare to write about North Korea's downfall after the death of Kim Il-sung. Of course, his son, Kim Jong-il, would go on to rule for the next 17 years.
Recurrent predictions about North Korea's collapse seem to amount to a sort of wish fulfillment among U.S. leaders. It was the views of Cha and others in the American foreign policy establishment that persuaded the administration of President Barack Obama to adopt a strategy of "strategic patience" toward Pyongyang. It was believed that it made little sense for Washington to engage with North Korea when it was likely that the country would soon be thrown on the scrapheap of history.
I am reminded of all this when reading recent articles marking the 10th anniversary of Kim Jong-un's rule. Once again, North Korea appears to be "economically broken, starving and politically isolated" as Cha described the situation in 2011.
The current dominant narrative is that Kim's attempts at economic reform to improve the lives of his people have failed and the country is now on the edge of collapse.
Shortly after taking power, Kim promised to build an "economically powerful state." Initial steps included allowing a measure of private enterprise in the agricultural sector and permitting the growth of informal markets. In addition, he oversaw a frenzy of "socialist construction" in Pyongyang with the erection of new modern buildings and the opening of more shops and restaurants.
But two developments brought this period of economic expansion to an end. One was the imposition of tougher international sanctions in 2017 after Kim continued to aggressively push for the testing of nuclear weapons and missiles.
Then came the COVID-19 threat in 2020 which resulted in North Korea imposing one of the world's strictest border closures out of fear that the pandemic could overwhelm the country's fragile healthcare system. The economy has also been struggling with severe weather conditions, including flooding, that has affected the agricultural sector and resulted in food shortages, with Kim admitting the food situation had become "tense."
But Kim can also count several "successes" ― at least from his own perspective ― that he has achieved during the past 10 years.
The first is that he is in power at all. It was the perception that Kim was not up to the task of ruling North Korea after his father died that led Cha and others to believe that the country would soon fall apart. But Kim proved that he was a tough and skilled political fighter, conducting purges of potential domestic opponents that included killing his own uncle and half-brother.
Another achievement is that Kim has built an extensive nuclear-armed ballistic missile force that might be capable of hitting the U.S. This has increased Kim's strategic leverage and might make it nearly impossible now for the U.S. to take him down.
North Korea's increased military power has also helped raise the global profile of Kim. He has held summits with the leaders of China, Russia and South Korea and, perhaps more importantly, with U.S. President Donald Trump that established Kim as a regional leader who had to be taken seriously.
Geostrategic developments, mainly growing tensions between China and the U.S., will benefit North Korea. Although China in the last few years supported increased international sanctions against North Korea to push Pyongyang toward denuclearization, it might be willing to adopt a more tolerant approach towards its isolated neighbor in the future. As North Korea's largest trading partner, Beijing may decide to step up its support for the Kim regime to counterbalance rising U.S. pressure on China in East Asia.
There are already signs of this happening as trade begins to recover from North Korea's pandemic-related border closures. There are indications that China is increasing its shipments of crude oil and fertilizer to North Korea after Kim and Chinese President Xi Jinping reaffirmed economic cooperation this summer.
Although Pyongyang will face difficult times ahead, China's support will likely keep the North Korean economy afloat and Kim in power.
John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.
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That was the bold prediction of Victor Cha, a top North Korean expert in Washington, D.C., writing in the New York Times in December 2011. With Kim Jong-un now celebrating his 10th anniversary in power as dictator, Cha's comment is a reminder that forecasting what will happen in North Korea often amounts to a fool's errand.
Predictions of North Korea's collapse have become routine over the last 30 years. When I was the Financial Times correspondent in Seoul in the 1990s, I remember being told by my editors to prepare to write about North Korea's downfall after the death of Kim Il-sung. Of course, his son, Kim Jong-il, would go on to rule for the next 17 years.
Recurrent predictions about North Korea's collapse seem to amount to a sort of wish fulfillment among U.S. leaders. It was the views of Cha and others in the American foreign policy establishment that persuaded the administration of President Barack Obama to adopt a strategy of "strategic patience" toward Pyongyang. It was believed that it made little sense for Washington to engage with North Korea when it was likely that the country would soon be thrown on the scrapheap of history.
I am reminded of all this when reading recent articles marking the 10th anniversary of Kim Jong-un's rule. Once again, North Korea appears to be "economically broken, starving and politically isolated" as Cha described the situation in 2011.
The current dominant narrative is that Kim's attempts at economic reform to improve the lives of his people have failed and the country is now on the edge of collapse.
Shortly after taking power, Kim promised to build an "economically powerful state." Initial steps included allowing a measure of private enterprise in the agricultural sector and permitting the growth of informal markets. In addition, he oversaw a frenzy of "socialist construction" in Pyongyang with the erection of new modern buildings and the opening of more shops and restaurants.
But two developments brought this period of economic expansion to an end. One was the imposition of tougher international sanctions in 2017 after Kim continued to aggressively push for the testing of nuclear weapons and missiles.
Then came the COVID-19 threat in 2020 which resulted in North Korea imposing one of the world's strictest border closures out of fear that the pandemic could overwhelm the country's fragile healthcare system. The economy has also been struggling with severe weather conditions, including flooding, that has affected the agricultural sector and resulted in food shortages, with Kim admitting the food situation had become "tense."
But Kim can also count several "successes" ― at least from his own perspective ― that he has achieved during the past 10 years.
The first is that he is in power at all. It was the perception that Kim was not up to the task of ruling North Korea after his father died that led Cha and others to believe that the country would soon fall apart. But Kim proved that he was a tough and skilled political fighter, conducting purges of potential domestic opponents that included killing his own uncle and half-brother.
Another achievement is that Kim has built an extensive nuclear-armed ballistic missile force that might be capable of hitting the U.S. This has increased Kim's strategic leverage and might make it nearly impossible now for the U.S. to take him down.
North Korea's increased military power has also helped raise the global profile of Kim. He has held summits with the leaders of China, Russia and South Korea and, perhaps more importantly, with U.S. President Donald Trump that established Kim as a regional leader who had to be taken seriously.
Geostrategic developments, mainly growing tensions between China and the U.S., will benefit North Korea. Although China in the last few years supported increased international sanctions against North Korea to push Pyongyang toward denuclearization, it might be willing to adopt a more tolerant approach towards its isolated neighbor in the future. As North Korea's largest trading partner, Beijing may decide to step up its support for the Kim regime to counterbalance rising U.S. pressure on China in East Asia.
There are already signs of this happening as trade begins to recover from North Korea's pandemic-related border closures. There are indications that China is increasing its shipments of crude oil and fertilizer to North Korea after Kim and Chinese President Xi Jinping reaffirmed economic cooperation this summer.
Although Pyongyang will face difficult times ahead, China's support will likely keep the North Korean economy afloat and Kim in power.
John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.
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