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| President Yoon Suk Yeol shakes hands with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping during their summit at a hotel in Bali, Indonesia, Nov. 15, 2022. Yonhap |
By Nam Hyun-woo
Speculation is growing over a possible summit between President Yoon Suk Yeol and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping during a series of multilateral diplomatic events in the coming months.
The most immediate opportunity will be the Group of 20 (G20) Summit slated for Sept. 9 to 10 in New Delhi, India. Yoon and Xi had their first summit on the occasion of last year's G20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia.
Neither of the leaders officially announced that they would attend the multilateral event, with China appearing to exploit the uncertainty to maximize its leverage. Xi had a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi last week, but China did not confirm whether Xi will travel to India for the G20 Summit.
However, many observers anticipate that Xi will likely attend the event, given Modi's open invitation to the Chinese leader and his attendance at last year's G20 Summit.
A South Korean government source said, "Talks have been going on for another summit between Presidents Yoon and Xi, but it remains uncertain when and where this will be realized."
Japanese news outlets also reported throughout this month that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is seeking a summit with Xi on the occasion of the G20 Summit. If a summit takes place between China and Japan in New Delhi, chances of South Korea having one during the event will also increase.
Following the G20 Summit, the United Nations General Assembly will take place in mid-September and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders' Meeting is also scheduled for November, meaning there are other multilateral events where the two leaders can sit face to face.
During last year's summit, Yoon and Xi acknowledged that their countries' relationship has experienced noticeable growth and they will work together for further progress based on mutual respect, reciprocity and common interests.
However, in the details, the leaders found differences in their positions on multiple agendas, such as containing North Korea's nuclear and missile threats.
Since the summit, bilateral relations have been locked in a slump, while South Korea is ever strengthening its trilateral partnership with the U.S. and Japan by agreeing to multiple cooperation schemes across security and the economy during a three-way summit at Camp David on Aug. 18.
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| President Yoon Suk Yeol, U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida walk to a joint press conference after the trilateral summit at Camp David, the U.S. Presidential retreat, in Maryland, Aug. 18. Courtesy of presidential office |
"From China's perspective, the Camp David summit can be seen as a clear sign that South Korea is titling its foreign policy toward the U.S. over China," said Lee Dong-gyu, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.
"It will be difficult to see greater progress from the outcome of last year's summit. The leaders may not use hardline rhetoric, but they are expected to take a clear stance on each other's positions."
During the Camp David summit, South Korea, the U.S. and Japan pledged close cooperation in regional security issues. Although U.S. President Joe Biden said the summit was not targeting China, the meeting was widely accepted as South Korea's willingness to deepen its involvement in Team U.S.A.'s broader Indo-Pacific strategy.
"If the summit takes place, Xi is anticipated to emphasize cooperation and solidarity between Asian countries, excluding the U.S.," Lee said. "Given the current situation, however, that won't be an agreeable agenda for South Korea."
Lee noted that economic cooperation could be a possible opener for the Yoon-Xi summit, as China recently lifted its ban on group tourism programs to Korea.
"To prevent South Korea from being too close with the U.S., China will likely stress the importance of the economic partnership," he said. "The two countries' economies are both experiencing a downturn, so this could be a possible lead in the potential summit."
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