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| A healthcare worker in protective gear carries yellow bags of medical waste from a clinic in Beijing, Monday. Chinese health authorities on Monday announced two additional COVID-19 deaths, both in the capital Beijing, that were the first reported in weeks and come during an expected surge of illnesses after the nation eased its strict zero-COVID approach. AP-Yonhap |
Next variant likely to emerge in China: experts
By Lee Hyo-jin
Korea should brace for a possible influx of new coronavirus variants from China, says local medical experts, who worry that the neighboring country's abrupt reopening policies could spawn mutations of the virus.
After the Chinese government abruptly rolled back its yearslong zero-COVID-19 strategy earlier this month, the nation is currently facing what could possibly be the world's biggest pandemic outbreak. Some scientists project China to see up to one million deaths over the next few months if the authorities fail to flatten the curve.
Although the scale of human movements between Korea and China has not fully returned to pre-COVID-19 levels, about 250,000 Chinese tourists visited Korea from August to October this year, according to data from the Korea Tourism Organization. And that figure is expected to increase as the Chinese government is anticipated to relax travel restrictions further.
As for Korea, there are currently no COVID-19-related restrictions on entrants of foreign nationality regardless of vaccination history or nationality. Travelers are also not subject to mandatory PCR tests upon arrival.
Local infectious disease experts viewed that China's sudden easing of COVID-19 restrictions has created the perfect environment for the virus to mutate. And if a new variant emerges, Korea will be one of the first countries to be affected, they warned.
"As seen from previous cases of Delta and Omicron variants, new strains emerge in regions with low vaccination coverage and a sudden spike in infections," said Kim Woo-joo, an infectious disease specialist at Korea University Guro Hospital, citing the identification of the Delta variant in India in 2020 and Omicron in South Africa in 2021.
Officially, over 90 percent of adults in China have received their primary vaccinations, with the booster vaccination rate standing at nearly 60 percent. Less than half of the elderly aged over 80 have received a booster.
But Kim pointed out that these figures do not necessarily mean that the population is sufficiently immunized, considering that the vaccines used in China ― Sinopharm and Sinovac ― showed 50 to 80 percent effectiveness against the original virus, but not the Omicron variant.
"Plus, the stringent lockdown measures carried out until recently may have deprived the population of natural immunity," he added.
Jung Jae-hun, a professor of preventive medicine at Gachon University, echoed the sentiment.
"The sudden surge of infections in China is concerning, especially to its neighboring countries like Korea. There's a high possibility that a new variant will emerge there in the next few months, if not weeks," he told The Korea Times. "And this should be one of the risk factors our government needs to bear in mind as it prepares to ease more COVID-19 restrictions such as lifting the indoor mask mandate."
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| Tour guides give directions to tourists in Seoul's Myeongdong shopping district, Oct. 19. Yonhap |
The experts were cautious to predict whether the new variant will be less fatal than the existing ones.
"We would have to see. Given that viruses tend to evolve to become less virulent, it is likely that the new strain will be another 'grandchild' of Omicron. However, we cannot rule out the possibility that it could be a new variant of concern," Kim said.
He added, "But for now, the biggest concern is that there's a lot of uncertainties because China does not share accurate information with other countries. Daily infection caseloads are being underreported, and I'm not sure if the death toll they are announcing ― two new deaths on Monday ― can be trusted," he said.
Jung also expressed concerns about lingering uncertainties of the virus situation in the neighboring country.
"As reinstating travel restrictions seems unlikely at this point of time, the best way to prevent an influx of new variants is to improve monitoring of China and other countries," he said.
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