[ANALYSIS] Nuclear-armed submarines will not stop North Korea's provocations

The Korea Times

The Korea Times

National

Tue, October 3, 2023 | 05:38

Defense

ANALYSISNuclear-armed submarines will not stop North Korea's provocations

Posted : 2023-04-27 16:52

Updated : 2023-04-27 16:55

USS West Virginia (SSBN 736), a U.S. Navy Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine / Korea Times file

Seoul's involvement in US retaliation decision would have effect on regime, experts say

By Jung Min-ho

President Yoon Suk Yeol and his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden announced a new security deal in Washington, Wednesday (local time), aimed at deterring North Korea's intensifying nuclear threats and highlighting the U.S. leader's decision to send a nuclear-armed submarine to South Korean waters for the first time in 40 years.

Much of the agreement remains subject to working-level reviews and negotiations. But they agreed on two specific plans: The U.S. will "further enhance the regular visibility of strategic assets," including its nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBN), and open a communication channel with Seoul over "any possible nuclear weapons employment" on the peninsula.

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But will the measures deter Pyongyang from developing its nuclear weapons? Experts say that would be highly unlikely. But they think Seoul's involvement in the decision-making process of Washington's nuclear retaliation against North Korea's nuclear strike would have a psychological effect on the regime.

"North Korea will highly likely respond to the new Washington Declaration by launching missiles in the coming days. So no. It won't deter the North from making more provocations ― it may intensify such acts," Shin Jong-woo, an analyst at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, a think tank, told The Korea Times.

"But I think it would be wrong to say what was announced is a mostly symbolic show of force without substance … Its SSBN and the consultative group between the U.S. and South Korea demonstrate Washington's will to retaliate. I believe this guarantee could have an effect on the North's potential decision over the use of its nuclear weapons."

The U.S.' plan to dock its SSBN in South Korea, which has not happened since the early 1980s, would bolster an effort to make its extended deterrence against Pyongyang "more visible," senior Biden officials told reporters.

Each of the U.S. Navy's 14 SSBNs can carry up to 24 ballistic missiles with multiple warheads, including nuclear ones. During the Cold War, the highly stealthy assets regularly visited South Korea's ports until the 1970s. But the U.S. eventually withdrew all of its nuclear weapons from the peninsula.

"If one appears, say, in South Korea's East Sea, it would send a message to North Korea," Shin said.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol listens as U.S. President Joe Biden speaks during a news conference in the Rose Garden of the White House, in Washington, Wednesday (local time). AP-Yonhap

Under the agreement, the two countries will also create the U.S.-ROK Nuclear Consultative Group, which would convene regularly to discuss nuclear and strategic planning issues. In addition, the allies will work to enable the joint planning and execution of ROK conventional support to U.S. nuclear operations in a contingency and improve combined exercises.

Many important details, including who will join the group, what types of drills South Korea will be allowed to participate in and, most importantly, how much South Korea would affect the U.S.' potential decision over the use of nuclear weapons, are unknown and will continue to remain so.

"Still, we should acknowledge that the consultative group will be the first communication channel on the U.S. nuclear weapons issues between the two countries. Until now, South Korea has been completely excluded," said Cheong Seong-chang, an analyst at the Sejong Institute, a think tank. "But ultimately, the U.S. president has the sole authority over the use of U.S. nuclear weapons, and he might not stay in that post after the election next year. North Korea knows it and, in the long run, its nuclear threats will only grow."

mj6c2@koreatimes.co.kr