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| Former U.S. president Donald Trump speaks during a rally in Robstown, Texas, Oct. 22. Reuters-Yonhap |
'Diplomacy works only when Pyongyang is trying to move away from China, Russia'
By Jung Min-ho
South Korea should prepare for a United States controlled by more isolationists and skeptics regarding American intervention in foreign affairs as Washington braces for a major Republican win in the upcoming midterm elections, according to a security expert on Northeast Asia.
The projected results of the Nov. 8 elections are about to bring new challenges to Northeast Asia, where the U.S.-China rivalry is intensifying and North Korea is speeding up the development of its nuclear weapons despite international outcry. Recent polls show that the conservative U.S. party will take control of the House and possibly win the Senate as well.
"Many of the Republicans today are more isolationists and less internationalists than they used to be. That's reflected most recently in signs that, if the Republicans retake the House, they are not going be so open to continue aid to Ukraine. No one is saying anything about our South Korea alliance, but it is certainly a trend in the wrong direction," Joel Wit, founder of 38 North, a website devoted to analysis about North Korea, said at Wednesday's forum hosted by The Korea Times. "If you look forward to the next presidential election, there is always a possibility that [former President] Donald Trump will come back and he's not a big fan of our alliances overseas ... Other Republican candidates may not as be as enthusiastic about American ties with overseas countries."
Previously, a similar warning came from former U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, who said in his memoir that Trump had kept the plan of pulling U.S. troops completely out of South Korea as his second-term priority.
Some U.S. politicians, including those predicted to become new members of the House, say they will block aid to Ukraine. How is it going to affect the war? How will the consequences affect North Korea, Russia's ally, and the prospects of its nuclear weapons? These are some of the questions South Koreans should ask themselves and prepare for, according to Wit.
Decades of international efforts to keep North Korea from developing nuclear arsenals have failed. It is now estimated to be on the verge of conducting its seventh nuclear weapons test.
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| Joel Wit, a security expert on Northeast Asia and the founder of 38 North, speaks during his online presentation at the Korea Times Forum, "New Challenges for Korea-U.S. Alliance," in Seoul, Wednesday. Korea Times photo by Choi Won-suk |
Wit believes the denuclearization of North Korea is still possible through diplomacy, but only if the U.S. tries to achieve it from a long-term perspective.
"To put it simply, diplomacy with Pyongyang only has a chance of working with North Korea trying to move away from those countries (China and Russia). That's been the case over the past 25 years. The problem is there is no sign of any interest on the part of North Korea," he said.
The only way to encourage North Korea to move away from the two nations is to transform its relationship with the U.S. fundamentally so that North Korea sees it as more valuable and beneficial.
"We have done that in the past, although we haven't put enough emphasis on that. We can certainly try it in the future, although there's no guarantee. But focusing on details rather than the big picture is a prescription for disaster," Wit said.
If left unresolved, the nuclear-armed North is expected to accelerate two concerning trends. One is a growing geopolitical division ― North Korea, China and Russia versus South Korea, the U.S. and Japan. The other is an accelerating arms race in the region.
"We are all familiar with North Korea's WMD program and how it's growing. And there are counter-steps taken by South Korea and Japan to deal with that and also to deal with growing threats from China. On top of all of that, all the countries in the region are moving into new technologies that are only going to aggravate the growing uncertainty," Wit said.
He warned all this is raising the possibility of instability or even war due to some kind of miscommunication or miscalculation.
"Where will Northeast Asia be in five years if these trends continue? What I would say is that chances of denuclearization in the region … will go down dramatically and chances of nuclearization in the region spreading to all the countries will probably increase dramatically," Wit said. "I think it's a very disturbing picture. That's the Northeast Asia we want to avoid. We start now to figure out how to avoid that and not wait five years."
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