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Tue, January 31, 2023 | 22:19
Editorial
Revive growth momentum
[사설 읽기] 성장 동력을 되살려라
Posted : 2022-12-01 14:56
Updated : 2022-12-01 14:57
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Economic outlook much gloomier next year
내년 경제전망 더 암울해


The country's economic outlook for next year is bleaker. Last week, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) revised down its 2023 growth projection for South Korea to 1.8 percent from its previous forecast of 2.2 percent. The figure is much lower than this year's expected growth rate of 2.7 percent.
내년 경제 전망은 어둡다. 지난주 경제협력개발기구(OECD)는 한국의 2023년 경제성장률 전망치를 기존 2.2%에서 1.8%로 하향 조정했다. 이는 올해 예상 성장률인 2.7%보다 훨씬 낮은 수치다.


There is no doubt that Korea, Asia's fourth-largest economy, is losing its growth momentum at an alarming rate. A fear of stagflation, a simultaneous phenomenon of stagnation and inflation, is likely to become a reality amid soaring prices, higher interest rates and the global economic slump.
아시아 4위 경제대국인 한국이 놀라운 속도로 성장 동력을 잃어가고 있다는 데는 의심의 여지가 없다. 경기침체(stagnation)와 물가상승(inflation)이 동시에 일어나는 현상인 스태그플레이션(stagflation)에 대한 공포는 치솟는 물가와 높은 금리, 글로벌 경기침체 속에서 현실이 될 가능성이 높다.


It is discouraging that the OECD lowered Korea's outlook while the Paris-based club of rich countries left its global growth projection for next year unchanged at 2.2 percent. This shows that the export-oriented Korean economy is more vulnerable to negative factors such as global monetary tightening and higher prices of oil and other natural resources.
파리에 본부를 둔 부유한 국가들의 기구인 OECD가 한국의 경제성장률 전망치를 하향 조정하면서도 내년 세계의 경제성장률 전망치는 2.2%로 유지시킨 점은 실망스럽다. 이는 수출 중심의 한국 경제가 글로벌 통화 긴축, 유가 및 기타 천연자원 가격 상승과 같은 부정적인 요인에 더 취약하다는 것을 보여준다.


The Korean economy is also bearing the brunt of the prolonged Russian war with Ukraine, the escalating great power competition between the U.S. and China and America's growing trade protectionism. China's slower growth is also one of the biggest challenges Korea faces. Domestically, brewing political conflicts between the ruling and opposition camps are weighing the economy down.
러시아의 우크라이나 전쟁 장기화, 미·중 강대국 경쟁 심화, 미국의 보호무역주의 확대 등으로 우리 경제가 직격탄을 맞고 있다. 중국의 저성장 또한 한국이 직면한 가장 큰 도전 중 하나이다. 국내적으로는 여야 간 정치적 갈등이 고조되면서 경제가 위축되고 있다.


Most of all, falling exports are dealing a severe blow to the economy. The country's overseas shipments shrank 16.7 percent year-on-year in the first 20 days of November. The drop was led by chip exports which plunged by nearly 30 percent. This is a cause for concern because the semiconductor industry accounts for 20 percent of the country's exports. Other export items such as steel, ships and mobile devices also suffered setbacks. Making matters worse, shipments to China, Korea's largest trading partner, nosedived by 28 percent.
무엇보다 수출 감소가 경제에 큰 타격을 주고 있다. 11월 1~20일 한국의 해외 출하량은 전년 동기 대비 16.7% 감소했다. 이런 감소는 거의 30%까지 급감한 반도체 칩 수출에 의해 주도되었다. 반도체 산업이 우리나라 수출의 20%를 차지하기 때문에 우려할 만하다. 철강, 선박, 모바일 기기 등 기타 수출 품목도 차질을 빚었다. 설상가상으로 한국의 최대 교역국인 중국으로의 수출은 28% 급감했다.


The country's exports are on an eight-month downward march. Its trade deficit is predicted to snowball to $40 billion this year, the largest since the country was hit by the 2008 global financial crisis. Even worse, exports are forecast to decline 3.1 percent next year with the trade shortfall showing no signs of decreasing.
한국의 수출은 8개월 연속 하락세를 보이고 있다. 올해 무역적자는 2008년 글로벌 금융위기 이후 최대 규모인 400억 달러에 달할 것으로 예상된다. 설상가상으로 내년 수출은 3.1% 감소할 것으로 전망되며 무역 적자는 줄어들 기미가 보이지 않는다.


The country cannot revive its economy without increasing exports. That's why President Yoon Suk-yeol presided over a conference to work out a new export strategy last Wednesday. The government and businesses should work together to beef up export industries by boosting their productivity and competitiveness. Companies need to take the lead in their technology prowess and product quality to dominate the global markets. It is also imperative for the country to diversify its export markets to reduce its excessive reliance on China.
수출 증가 없이는 경제를 살릴 수 없다. 윤석열 대통령이 지난주 수요일 새로운 수출전략을 짜기 위한 회의를 주재한 것도 이 때문이다. 정부와 기업이 힘을 모아 생산성과 경쟁력을 높여 수출산업을 육성해야 한다. 기업은 세계 시장을 지배하기 위해 기술력과 제품 품질을 선도할 필요가 있다. 중국에 대한 과도한 의존도를 줄이기 위해 수출시장을 다변화하는 것도 시급하다.


It is equally important for the National Assembly to enact laws such as a special semiconductor industry development bill in order to provide more support for exporters. Structural reforms are imperative to stave off looming economic woes. It is also urgent to speed up deregulation, encourage innovation and promote entrepreneurship to revive growth momentum.
국회가 수출기업에 대한 지원을 강화하기 위해 반도체특별법과 같은 법률을 제정하는 것도 마찬가지로 중요하다. 다가오는 경제위기를 막기 위해서는 구조개혁이 시급하다. 성장 동력을 되살리기 위해 규제완화 속도를 높이고 혁신을 장려하며 기업가정신을 고취하는 것 또한 시급하다.

KEY WORDS
■ outlook 전망
■ gloomy 비관적인
■ bleak 암울한
■ forecast 예측, 예보
■ momentum (일의 진행에 있어서의) 탄력, 가속도
■ phenomenon 현상
■ slump 불황
■ -oriented ~위주의
■ monetary 통화의, 화폐의
■ deficit 적자
■ snowball (문제 등이) 눈덩이처럼 커지다
■ shortfall 부족분, 부족량
■ bear the brunt of ~을 정면에서 맞다
■ prolong 연장하다
■ brew (불쾌한 일이) 태동하다
■ prowess 기량, 솜씨
■ preside over ~의 사회를 보다
■ beef up 강화하다, 보강하다
■ stave off 피하다, 간신히 모면하다
■ loom (어떤 일이) 곧 닥칠 것처럼 보이다

기사 원문 보기


Emailywjeon@ktimes.com Article ListMore articles by this reporter
 
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