By Choo Jae-woo
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I would like first to congratulate you on becoming the president of the Republic of Korea. May God bless you with wisdom and power and allow you to lead the nation to where you have promised the Korean people. May there be a plethora of challenges ahead, however, I am as confident as one of those who support you that you will overcome them with your unwavering determination and unswerving willpower. The best of luck to you.
Just like the rest of the world leaders, you will have to navigate Korea through uncharted waters, full of uncertainties and looming dangers. Nothing can be taken for granted and there are no foregone conclusions within sight. I dare to say that the success of your voyage will depend on how you manage Korea's relations with China.
The bilateral relationship is challenged by the consequences of China's rise. The rise was once beneficial to Korea's economy, with ever expanding market and business opportunities in China. While the robust aspect is greatly diminishing, ominous traces are more visible as China challenges the supremacy of Korea's ally ― the United States.
China's challenge has been ever aggressive and provocative to the extent that Beijing's regime is now being perceived as revisionist. The regime's authoritarian nature and revisionist approach to universal values, international institutions and norms naturally make their behavior irredentist and irrational. China's increasing military intrusions into our waters and air at its own discretion are a living testament.
Korea's relationship with China is at a critical juncture. It is largely because China's provocative military actions have been transpiring into a practical threat to the well-being of your constituency, the nation's sovereignty and territorial integrity. You have correctly identified the potential challenges that your nation must confront over the next five years from China. On many occasions, you have shown your firm conviction that the alliance with the United States is the best viable means in defending Korea's national interest against China.
China's assertive behavior is to an extent challenging Korea's identity as a state that upholds democracy and the liberal international order as core values. In your foreign policy outlook, you therefore made it explicit that Korea under your leadership will become a proactive contributor to the defense of these values.
In this vein, you want Korea to become a "global pivotal state." You envision a Korea with a diplomatic capacity that is commensurate with its economic prowess, as one of the top 10 economies in the world. After your predecessor, having gone all-in on relations with North Korea and to a certain extent, China, while neglecting others, your foreign policy adjustment is certainly welcomed at this critical juncture.
The world is in a dire need of constructive and substantive contributions from a country like Korea. Korea's role in this context can be as expansive as you claimed. Korea, for instance, can be a vital force in the defense of the liberal international order. It is critical to the world economy's fast recovery. It is a decisive factor to the success of the global supply management, and others alike. It is a vital force to the world's defense against revisionists.
The perils of China's rise will not be resolved without challenges. In this day and age of the U.S. and China strategically competing against each other, Korea must stay away from siding with one rival over the other. Any decision to side with one over the other will only backfire. A possible punitive action can be recalled by China from 2016 when economic retaliation was taken against Korea's decision to deploy America's THAAD system.
What if the United States does not come to Korea's defense just like it did in the past? Is it worthy for Korea to sacrifice its economic interests in China once again at the cost of defending the alliance and democratic values and norms? What strategic countermeasures you have in mind are at the center of attention.
I sincerely wish you seriously consider the following two strategic options. First, Korea must utilize its ever rising geo-political strategic value to its utmost advantage against China. While Beijing may appear to be coercive in soliciting Seoul, it on the other hand means China getting agitated about the prospective loss of cooperation opportunities with Seoul on high technologies, for instance. Second, Korea should play the United States off of China.
Beijing's intimidation about Seoul's commitment to a stronger alliance presents Seoul with a golden opportunity to set anew the "rules of the game" against China. It would be a set of "redlines" demanding China's wholehearted respect of our sovereignty rights and territorial integrity. Beijing's refusal, we can argue, will leave us with no other choice but to become a pivotal state to America's China containment strategy.
Such strategies however do not warrant Korea bypassing a more diplomatic approach. Korea's relationship with China is as important as that with the United States. We cannot lose China's market if we desire sustainable economic growth. Our relations with China therefore also deserve further development and progress. To this end, Korea must make a serious effort to resume dialogue with China.
Without communication, the two nations cannot solve any problems that have hindered the development of the relationship. When and only if the communication channel is reconnected, the window of opportunity for a peaceful solution to misunderstandings and misperception will rise. I thereby strongly and sincerely urge you to take the initiative in resuming dialogue with China. Thank you.
Yours sincerely,
Choo Jae-woo
The writer (jwc@khu.ac.kr) is a professor of international relations at Kyung Hee University and director of the China Center at the Korea Research Institute for National Security. He is a former visiting fellow of the Brookings Institution.