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| A TV screen shows former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who was shot dead during a campaign speech in Nara, Japan, Friday. Yonhap |
Yoon to visit Abe memorial altar in Seoul
By Kwon Mee-yoo
Until earlier last week, optimism about Korea-Japan relations after the upper house elections in Japan had dominated in foreign policy circles.
Although President Yoon Suk-yeol was unable to sit down with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida for a bilateral summit on the sidelines of the NATO Summit in Madrid, Spain in late June, many experts here predicted that the two leaders would eventually meet for a summit after the July 10 upper house elections in Japan. Kishida's reluctance to sit down with Yoon in Spain for a summit before the election was understood as a diplomatic sign that the Japanese leader was feeling pressured by domestic public opinion against Korea.
That optimism for a post-election Korea-Japan summit is about to change after the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was shot dead on Friday.
There have been no changes in President Yoon's enthusiasm to sit down with the Japanese leader as soon as possible to mend ties, but the ball is now in Japan's court and Abe's sudden death will complicate the domestic situation in Japan, according to experts.
With Abe's death, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Japan is expected to gain sympathy votes. According to NHK's exit polls, the LDP and its coalition partner the Komeito party are likely to win between 69 and 83 seats out of the 125 seats that went to polls Sunday, keeping a majority in the upper house.
Choi Eun-mi, a research fellow at the Seoul-based think tank Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said Abe's unexpected death gave Japan's LDP stronger support.
"The turnouts for Japan's elections are generally low, but the assassination of Abe is likely to bring centrist voters out to polling stations to cast their votes for the LDP, while unifying the supporters of the conservative party," Choi told The Korea Times, Sunday.
The LDP was already expected to win the July 10 election, but Choi said its win is now likely to be by an even larger margin.
"Basically, Japan's stance toward Korea is that Korea is responsible for the worsened bilateral relations and Abe had exerted a great deal of influence over Japan's diplomacy, including its relations with Korea," Choi said.
"There were voices for cooperation with Korea amid growing threats from Russia and China, but public opinion will not change quickly."
Choi said the election results could empower Kishida to repair Korea-Japan ties, but Abe's death is going to cast a shadow over Kishida's foreign policy direction as well as within the LDP.
According to Japanese media, Korea's Foreign Minister Park Jin was expected to visit Japan later this month, but Choi predicted that Park's visit is likely to be postponed. Park and his counterpart Yoshimasa Hayashi were to discuss thorny bilateral issues such as wartime forced labor and pave the way for a Korea-Japan summit.
"It is not that Korea is not important for Japan, but Japan's public opinion would change domestic priorities, putting diplomacy with Korea on the backburner," Choi said.
"Korea has to discuss urgent issues with Japan such as forced labor and the court order for an asset sale of Japanese companies in Korea, but Japan's domestic issues will take precedence over diplomatic issues with Korea."
Choi reserved her prospects on the impact of Abe's death in the LDP.
"Abe was the core of the strongest faction within Japan's ruling party. His clique might lose power, but there also is a possibility of his words being maintained as his will," Choi explained.
"Japan's parliamentary system is different from Korea's presidential system, and the Japanese prime minister needs support from one's party to have greater power. We have to observe how the LDP will reshape itself after Abe's death."
President Yoon plans to visit a memorial altar for Abe that is will be set up at the Japanese Embassy's Public Information and Cultural Center at Anguk Station in downtown Seoul, Monday.
Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, Foreign Minister Park and presidential national security adviser Kim Sung-han will also visit the memorial altar.
According to the presidential office, Yoon does not have plans to go to Japan, but will send a special delegation there to offer condolences at the official memorial service organized by the Japanese government and the LDP. Prime Minister Han and Vice National Assembly Speaker Rep. Chung Jin-suk are expected to lead the delegation.
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