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| New South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol will face myriad yet difficult diplomatic challenges for the next five years. Korea Times file |
North Korea's nuclear ambitions, US-China competition to put new South Korean leader's foreign policy to test
By Kang Seung-woo
Managing to survive a hard-fought, nail-biter election, President Yoon Suk-yeol now faces even tougher diplomatic challenges.
An unanswered nuclear threat is just sitting across the border, while a strategic dilemma over the country's balancing act amid the U.S.-China rivalry will continue to vex the new South Korean government. Plus, the new administration should find ways to normalize the nation's frayed ties with Japan.
Through his election campaign, the priority of Yoon's foreign policy direction ― to pursue a comprehensive strategic alliance with the United States ― has been advertised as a shift from the Moon Jae-in administration's balanced diplomacy, which was designed to avoid picking sides between its security ally, Washington, and largest trade partner, Beijing.
As such, Yoon dispatched his policy consultation delegation to the U.S. in April and expressed his determination to cooperate on the U.S.-led Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), agreeing with the U.S. on the need to upgrade the bilateral alliance to a comprehensive and strategic one, both of which have to do with the U.S.' moves to contain China.
"The Yoon administration is correct in pursuing a close strategic allied relationship with the United States," said Joseph DeTrani, a former U.S. special envoy for negotiations with North Korea, describing the "unique and powerful" alliance as the bedrock of the bilateral relationship and security in the region.
"China is the ROK's No. 1 trading partner, with the United States as No. 2, but that reality should not blind the Yoon Administration to the national security imperative ― and the will of the people in a strong liberal democracy ― that a close allied relationship with the United States is in South Korea's interest," DeTrani said. The ROK refers to the Republic of Korea, South Korea's official name.
Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor of international relations at King's College London, also predicted that Yoon will more openly criticize Beijing and work more closely with U.S.-led initiatives such as the Quad or Quad Plus or the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, once it is launched.
"It makes sense for Yoon to work closely with the U.S. and other partners similarly concerned about China's aggressive posture, such as Australia, Canada, Europe or Japan, or NATO. And I would advise the Yoon government to be more open about its collaboration with these countries that the Moon government has downplayed," he said.
"China will of course criticize the Yoon government. But then, Beijing is always critical of any perceived slight," he said.
"So at some point, it will criticize the Yoon government anyway. Seoul should not be afraid of this, and continue to diversify its economic links to minimize the impact of any Chinese actions," Pacheco Pardo added.
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| President Yoon Suk-yeol will hold his first summit with U.S. President Joe Biden in Seoul, May 21, during which the U.S. leader is expected to ask Korea to support Washington's anti-China coalition. Korea Times file |
Amid growing signs that the Yoon administration is set to strengthen its alliance with Washington and eventually lend more support to the U.S.-led anti-China coalition, the Chinese government has also been working hard to keep the South Korean government in check.
Chinese President Xi Jinping held a phone conversation with Yoon days after his election win in March and Vice President Wang Qishan attended Yoon's inauguration ceremony, which is seen as unprecedented for the Chinese government to send such a senior official to Seoul on the occasion of South Korea's leadership change.
Yoon's U.S.-centered diplomacy has already drawn veiled warnings from the Chinese side.
"Seoul has no room to gamble in the so-called game between Beijing and Washington. Only by accurately clarifying and grasping the meaning of mutual respect can it find the answer to become a pivotal country," China's state-run Global Times warned in an editorial in March.
Harry Kazianis, the president and CEO of the developing think tank, Rogue States Project, said the new South Korean president should not go so far as to alienate China, although he is expected to be much tougher on Beijing to Biden's liking.
"Yoon must strike a middle ground and tell Beijing bluntly it will not tolerate a China that cheats on U.N. sanctions or gives any weapons technology to Pyongyang but ensure trade relations are at least stable," Kazianis said.
"Yoon, overall, must try to diversify trade away from China as much as he can so Beijing can never leverage its economic muscle to hurt Seoul as it has done in the past," he continued.
In response to South Korea's approval in 2016 of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery in Seongju, North Gyeongsang Province, the Chinese government has been carrying out an economic retaliation campaign by imposing unofficial boycotts on Korean products and enforcing tourism restrictions. China claims that the U.S. missile defense system hurts its security interests.
In fact, despite Yoon's pledge to bring another THAAD battery here, the issue failed to get included in his administration's policy tasks to pursue ― a move that appears mindful of more Chinese retaliation.
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| North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, center, walks around the Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile on a launcher near Pyongyang in this photo carried by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency in March. Yonhap |
North Korea is highly anticipated to carry out a seventh nuclear test soon, according to the South Korean and U.S. governments, reminding the new South Korean president that its nuclear program is an immediate threat to watch.
Along with a nuclear test, the Kim Jong-un regime has carried out missile tests 15 times so far this year and they include the launches of an intercontinental ballistic missile and a submarine-launched ballistic missile.
According to his transition team, the Yoon administration is set to seek North Korea's complete and verifiable denuclearization on the basis of principle and consistency by drawing up a predictable denuclearization road map devised through close consultations with the U.S. and by pursuing negotiations with North Korea under the principle of reciprocity.
"Hopefully, the Yoon Administration will persist with the complete and verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula as the ROK's core objective with North Korea," DeTrani said.
However, with North Korea now standing firm against giving up its nuclear ambitions despite decades of U.S. diplomacy, there are some whispers in the U.S. that it is time to shift its goal for Pyongyang from denuclearization to arms control ― although Yoon's side has yet to refer to the issue.
Former senior U.S. nuclear arms negotiator Robert Gallucci claims that arms control should be a means to convince North Korea to denuclearize, and not be an end in itself, citing that arms control negotiations are what Pyongyang wants, as they would amount to the virtual acceptance of the country as a nuclear power.
"It is not surprising that many analysts think that our goal with the DPRK (North Korea) ought to change from persuading the North to abandon its nuclear weapons to simply limiting the threat from those weapons," said Gallucci, who negotiated a 1994 nuclear freeze deal with Pyongyang.
"That said, the original goal with North Korea remains a worthy one, and we should not give up on it," he continued.
According to Gallucci, accepting North Korea's status as a nuclear weapons state undercuts a global objective shared by virtually all countries in the world ― nuclear and non-nuclear weapons states alike ― that oppose the further spread of nuclear weapons.
"So, there's nothing wrong with pursuing arms control on the road to a permanent, sustainable outcome that allows the North to meet its security objectives without sustaining its nuclear weapons program," Gallucci added.
DeTrani also said, "Accepting North Korea as a nuclear weapons state will be the beginning of a nuclear arms race in the region, with countries like South Korea and Japan and others, to include Taiwan, also interested in acquiring their own nuclear weapons, despite any extended nuclear deterrence commitments from the United States."
In response to North Korea's ever-evolving nuclear and missile arsenal, the Yoon administration has vowed to take a hardline stance, hoping for possible support from the U.S.
However, Kazianis said Yoon may feel alone in doing so as Washington is already preoccupied with more urgent diplomatic issues as well as a difficult domestic situation.
"Right now, Biden looks at Pyongyang's missiles and nuclear weapons as a challenge that only presents political pain and nothing he can solve easily. Washington knows that in order to make any progress with Pyongyang will take very tough negotiations and years of effort as well as using political capital they do not have at the moment," Kazianis said.
"Combine all that with the war in Ukraine, you will likely see President Yoon mostly on his own trying to contain North Korea while Washington attends to what it feels are other more pressing matters," he said.
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