South Korea, US agree to update war plan

Defense Minister Suh Wook and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin hold a press conference at the Ministry of National Defense in Seoul, Thursday, after the 53rd Security Consultative Meeting. Joint Press Corps

OPCON transition not to come during Moon's presidency

By Kang Seung-woo

South Korea and the United States agreed Thursday to update their military operation plans in response to North Korea's evolving nuclear and missile weapons programs.

In addition, the allies also concurred that they will carry out the second part of the three-phase assessment to verify Seoul's readiness to regain wartime operational control (OPCON) of its troops from Washington, in the second half of next year.

The agreements were made at the annual Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) in Seoul, where Defense Minister Suh Wook sat down with his U.S. counterpart, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

"The United States and the ROK remain committed to a diplomatic approach to the DPRK. And we continue to call upon the DPRK to engage in dialogue, but we also discussed measures to enhance our combined deterrence posture and to defend against the full range of threats," Austin said during a press conference at the Ministry of National Defense after the SCM. DPRK is the official name of North Korea, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and ROK refers to South Korea's official name, the Republic of Korea.

"We also approved new strategic planning guidance (SPG), an important step forward to frame forthcoming alliance planning efforts."

Suh added, "To respond to the changing strategic environment more effectively, we shared the need to update the war plan."

Given that the last changes to the existing war plan were made in 2010, there have been calls for developing a new plan, sparked by major advancements in Pyongyang's weapons development programs, including its refined nuclear arms, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and an alleged hypersonic missile.

In order to update the plan, the defense chiefs of the two countries need to approve the SPG, and then the South Korean and U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staffs will start working on developing the new war plan.

The guidance is set to pave the way for major changes to the current OPLAN 5015 that lays out a series of procedures to handle all-out war with the North. OPLAN 5015 is known to focus largely on handling conventional attacks ― a reason why calls for its replacement or update have been surfacing.

As for the OPCON transition, the defense chiefs agreed to conduct the full operational capability (FOC) assessment of the future Combined Forces Command during the combined military drills in fall of next year.

"This represents an important task toward meeting the conditions necessary for OPCON transition," Austin said.

As part of an assessment of the South Korean military's OPCON readiness, the allies have been utilizing a three-phase verification process ― initial operational capability (IOC), FOC and full mission capability (FMC). However, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they failed to fully assess the FOC this year.

The agreement means that President Moon Jae-in's self-imposed deadline to take back OPCON before his term ends in May 2022 will not be met.

Following last year's SCM, the joint communique failed to mention the U.S.'s commitment to keeping its troops here at the current level of 28,500, raising speculation that the U.S. government may withdraw some American troops from the Korean Peninsula as part of its strategic flexibility policy, aimed at optimizing its forces to respond successfully to challenges around the globe.

President Moon Jae-in poses with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin during the latter's visit to Cheong Wa Dae in Seoul, Thursday. Yonhap

However, this time the joint statement once again mentions U.S. troop levels. Currently, 28,500 U.S. troops are stationed in South Korea.

The joint statement also included the acknowledgement of the importance of preserving peace and security in the Taiwan Strait, raising speculation that the role of the bilateral alliance may expand beyond the peninsula.

The issue was also mentioned in the joint statement following the summit between President Moon and U.S. President Joe Biden in May.

Following the SCM, Austin paid a visit to President Moon at Cheong Wa Dae and they discussed the South Korean government's engagement policy toward North Korea and ways to enhance bilateral cooperation.

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